Policy Phase Lag Can Lead to Over Tightening

Policy Phase Lag Can Lead to Over Tightening
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 16, 2022 in New York City. Stocks fell sharply in morning trading as investors react to the Federal Reserve's largest rate hike since 1994. Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Law Ka-chung
Updated:
0:00
Commentary

Since the previous Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) reiterated a longer-than-expected rate hike and a later-than-expected rate cut, the shorter market rates then edged up. Yet, Fed funds futures show the terminal rate stayed at around five percent and moved within a small range of plus or minus 25 basis points. The market is likely to remain in a narrow range, and the terminal hike will likely end in March, May, or June 2023.

Law Ka-chung
Law Ka-chung
Author
Law Ka-chung is a commentator on global macroeconomics and markets. He has been writing numerous newspaper and magazine columns and talking about markets on various TV, radio, and online channels in Hong Kong since 2005. He covers all types of economics and finance topics in the United States, Europe, and Asia, ranging from macroeconomic theories to market outlook for equities, currencies, rates, yields, and commodities. He has been the chief economist and strategist at a Hong Kong branch of the fifth-largest Chinese bank for more than 12 years. He has a Ph.D. in Economics, MSc in Mathematics, and MSc in Astrophysics.
twitter
facebook
Related Topics