It is time for the world to move beyond the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and to commence thinking through post-communist futures for China. The CCP’s rule is seen as illegitimate by all classes.
That is a major development that recalls the situation in Russia from the 1905 Revolution through the revolutions of 1917. Another historical parallel is the 1979 fall of the Shah of Iran. Now, the world must see the CCP as illegitimate and isolate it just as governments did to apartheid South Africa. The pressure against Pretoria conveyed that the world would not accept that government and served to aid the opposition within South Africa.
Planning for China’s post-communist future requires supporting protest movements when they occur. Often, these movements will have a genesis in non-political areas but will rapidly spread and escalate in intensity. The world witnessed this in late 2022 with the “white paper” protests, which unfortunately were not sustained. Although the protests had cooled in December 2022, this should not detract from the spontaneous protests or how they, as in Russia in January 1905 or Iran in 1978, may make the genesis of a series or waves of resistance to the CCP.
The protesters were bold and incurred great risks as the police presence, CCTV, omnipresent recognition software, and tracking techniques would pose a danger if they were identified, and this risk would remain for many months and years to come. Additionally, the greater the success of the protests, the greater the need for CCP leader Xi Jinping to crack down to sustain his and the Party’s failing legitimacy.
The “white paper” revolt against the COVID-19 lockdowns is informative. The movement was a strong, multi-city protest against the “zero-COVID” policy with robust elements of anti-Xi and anti-Party unrest incorporated into it. However powerful, it was a nascent movement, and it was difficult to state the degree of coordination among the movement or to discern its leaders.
Most probably, a new wave of protests will stem from the major economic downturn the country is experiencing, the worst since Deng Xiaoping commenced full embrace of capitalism, which is inseparable from the misrule of the CCP. Another avenue would arise in Xi’s efforts to seize Taiwan. The harsh measures that he is imposing to prepare the populace might be the spark as the country moves toward war.
The CCP leadership has warned that China is facing “extreme scenarios” due to the hostility of the United States and its allies, which require the Chinese people to prepare themselves for sacrifice. Explicitly, Xi has repeatedly called for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for war. The country is preparing, including revision of laws related to reenlistment and conscription and a 7.2 percent increase in the official defense budget, although the amount is certainly more than what is publicly stated. “National Defense Mobilization” offices have also been established around the country.
If an attempt to conquer Taiwan or aggression against India or the Philippines fails, without question, there will be mass protests that will be an existential threat to the Chinese regime.
While the legitimation crisis of the CCP is here and the existential crisis is on the horizon, to hasten the fall of the CCP and to be prepared for its demise, including collapse, it is critical to have a temporary Chinese government in exile. This government should be ready to deploy when the CCP is overthrown or evacuates itself from power.
To advance this end, the Biden administration must immediately end access to New York capital markets and deepen trade restrictions against Beijing. While that is unlikely to occur as the administration fully embraces the “old regime,” that is engagement with the Chinese regime. Hence, action must be taken by others, including people of goodwill around the world. Western governments and the Chinese diaspora may develop strategies to delegitimize the CCP and seize opportunities to collaborate more closely with human rights organizations and the Chinese diaspora. This would advance a greater understanding of human rights abuses within China while incorporating these messages in official documents and other meetings, such as with nongovernmental organizations or organizations that advance religious and political freedom.
Beijing’s suppression of the “white paper” protests also underscores the need to encourage the development of advanced technologies that allow Chinese citizens unfettered access to the internet and to support protesters to build civil society within China. Western media and universities have a key role to play. They should be encouraged to host gatherings, meetings, and workshops on human rights abuses in China while exploring measures to lend their support to the protesters while working to build civil society.
