While China and the United States continue to seek trade advantages over each other, developments in Japan give every sign of greatly complicating Beijing’s political and economic calculations.
Tokyo’s increased defense spending and efforts to give its armed forces more latitude to maneuver complicate Beijing’s military and economic challenges at an especially difficult time.
Although Japan claims to continue adherence to the pacifist constitution it adopted at the end of World War II in 1945, it has clearly decided to engage in radical reinterpretations. Japan has decided to increase its defense spending for 2023–27 and, in the past year, increased military outlays by some 16 percent to the equivalent of about $56 billion.
This figure falls far short of China’s military budget, which verges on the equivalent of $300 billion, much less the United States at more than $850 billion. Japan’s figure is nonetheless substantive, and if indications from the government in Tokyo are correct, it’s just the start of comparable increases for the next few years. It’s certainly enough to capture Beijing’s attention, not the least because it’s clearly aimed at Chinese ambitions.
In the words of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, “We hope to contribute to defend a free and open international order based on the rule of law and to achieve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Four general Japanese changes must stand out in Beijing’s calculation. One is a clear commitment for the Japanese armed forces to work with allies and take on more offensive roles. Another is Tokyo’s decision to deploy long-range cruise missiles that can hit targets in North Korea. Such a response is to be expected given the provocative nature of North Korea’s missile deployment and testing, but it can’t escape Beijing’s notice that those arms can also hit targets in China.
The third significant change is Tokyo’s decision to permit the Japanese industry a greater ability to export lethal weapons, including F-15 fighter jets and fighter jet engines made in Japan under American license, as well as surface-to-air Patriot guided missiles, also made in Japan under U.S. license. There’s even talk of Japan sending such missiles to Ukraine. Fourth is Japan’s recent agreement with the UK and Italy to develop the next-generation jet fighter.
In the words of U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, “The scope, scale, and speed of Japan’s security reforms have been unprecedented.”
While Beijing can’t be happy about any of this, most directly of concern for those in Zhongnanhai is no doubt a particular item in Japan’s 2024 defense budget: a $5.2 billion equivalent allocation for air defense missiles to protect Japan’s southwestern islands in case, the budget document makes clear, of conflict between China and Taiwan. Since Taiwan was once a Japanese colony, this particular interest must resonate, especially in Beijing, and sounds as close to a direct threat as is diplomatically possible.
Beijing can complain and has already done so, but otherwise, there’s little it can do diplomatically in response to Tokyo’s actions. The only answer of substance available to Beijing is to beef up its own military capabilities. Even more than it had already planned, Beijing will undoubtedly increase its military capabilities. But this response comes at an especially difficult time for China.
China’s economy isn’t doing well, and it can’t afford to pour more resources into its army and navy. The collapse of the still-important property development sector cries out for expensive government efforts to avoid financial and, hence, economic disaster. So, too, does the huge and sometimes paralyzing debt overhang among local governments. With exports in decline and the economy slowing from its once breakneck pace of growth, Beijing needs all the financial and economic resources at its disposal to restart growth at an acceptable pace and reorient its economy away from the huge dependence on the exports on which it once based its growth and now makes China too vulnerable to developments in Europe and North America. Still, greater defense demands will only make this essential job more difficult.
