Opinion
Opinion

Economic Measurement and the Mirage of Exactness

Numbers do not speak for themselves. They are framed, spun, and selectively emphasized.
Economic Measurement and the Mirage of Exactness
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Commentary
In contentious political environments, economic data rarely stand as objective measures. They are transformed into talking points and wielded to justify policies as much as to describe reality. A monthly jobs report, a quarterly GDP release, or an inflation figure splashed across financial headlines is treated with the solemnity of a laboratory result. Markets react, central bankers pontificate, and legislators posture—all on the basis of a handful of daunting numbers. Yet beneath the veneer of rigor lies a reality that economists have long known but the public too rarely hears: economic measurement is messy, contingent, and riven with flaws. To take these figures as seriously as one might an engineering calculation is to misunderstand their very nature.

The Concept-Measurement Gap

Unlike the physical sciences, where experiments can be replicated under controlled conditions, economic data arise from millions of decentralized transactions, informal exchanges, and shifting definitions. The “measurement gap” describes the yawning space between what we wish to know and what our tools can actually capture.
Peter C. Earle
Peter C. Earle
Author
Peter C. Earle is an economist and writer who spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst in global financial markets on Wall Street.