Do GDP and Unemployment Agree With Each Other on the State of the Current Economy?

Do GDP and Unemployment Agree With Each Other on the State of the Current Economy?
A "now hiring" sign is displayed in a window in Manhattan in New York City on July 28, 2022. Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Law Ka-chung
Updated:
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Commentary

Most of the time, it is not easy to tell how good or bad an economy is. Take the United States as an example, while the non-farm payroll year-over-year (YoY) growth rate has been on a downtrend (from above 10 percent in April 2021 to below 2 percent recently), the unemployment rate has remained flat and low in the recent seven quarters, yet real GDP YoY growth has been fluctuating although it has rebounded recently.

Law Ka-chung
Law Ka-chung
Author
Law Ka-chung is a commentator on global macroeconomics and markets. He has been writing numerous newspaper and magazine columns and talking about markets on various TV, radio, and online channels in Hong Kong since 2005. He covers all types of economics and finance topics in the United States, Europe, and Asia, ranging from macroeconomic theories to market outlook for equities, currencies, rates, yields, and commodities. He has been the chief economist and strategist at a Hong Kong branch of the fifth-largest Chinese bank for more than 12 years. He has a Ph.D. in Economics, MSc in Mathematics, and MSc in Astrophysics.
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