Canada moved closer to becoming a two-party state in Monday’s election as both the Liberals and Conservatives made gains at the expense of the Bloc Québécois and NDP. While some faces in Parliament will change, the balance of government remains the same with a Liberal minority. The electoral results also highlight how regionally divided the nation is.
The NDP fared the worst as its support collapsed from 25 seats and nearly 18 percent national support in 2021 to a dismal 6 percent support and seven seats this time around. Aside from a lone seat in Quebec, the party has no others east of Manitoba. Jagmeet Singh announced he will resign from his position as party leader after a short emotional speech in Burnaby, B.C., where he lost his seat.
Years of close association with the Trudeau government left the NDP unable to effectively distinguish itself from the Liberals, while Canadians voted in reaction to the external economic threat presented by U.S. President Trump. The next leader of the NDP will be tasked with rebuilding a party suffering its lowest seat count in its 62-year history.
The Bloc Québécois shared a similar electoral fate to the NDP, though not as dramatically, going from 33 seats to 23. Leader Yves-François Blanchet’s speech offered optimism and no indication of his consideration of stepping aside for new leadership. He highlighted how the Bloc could stand up for Quebec’s interests effectively as a party able to exert influence upon a Liberal minority government.
For the Greens, co-leader Elizabeth May will sit as the lone member in the House of Commons in her fifth term. The party had won two seats in the 2021 election.
The Conservative Party increased its popular vote share from nearly 34 percent to 41 percent and gained potentially 24 seats, yet the election could only be considered a loss for the party. The Conservatives began the election with high expectations and polling figures indicating they could win a supermajority. Their support declined steadily through the campaign, however, and while it appeared to be recovering in the final week, it wasn’t enough to pull off a win.
Leader Pierre Poilievre could have ridden the wave of party growth into a strong opposition role, but he disastrously lost his seat in Carleton in Ottawa. He has expressed no intention of resigning as party leader, but he will be challenged in effectively serving as the leader of the opposition without a presence in the House of Commons. Both he and the party will be doing some soul-searching.
Mark Carney’s Liberals surely wanted a majority government, but can only be happy with an increased minority, considering they faced electoral obliteration only two months ago. Popular support for the Liberals went from 33.6 percent to nearly 44 percent, and they gained eight seats. Carney’s speech reached out to the regions as he promised respect for Quebec’s distinct identity and vowed to get things built across the country. He carefully never mentioned the word pipelines in his speech, though many westerners were hoping to hear it.
Carney must quickly figure out the direction he plans to go with the government and what kind of deals he will make with other parties to maintain it. While the NDP no longer has official party status, it still has enough seats to get the Liberals over the majority line. But the NDP may not be as eager to appear associated with the Liberals as in the past. The Bloc can lend enough support to ensure the Liberals can pass legislation, too, but Blanchet will always exact a price in his province for his support, and more preferential treatment for Quebec could inflame the West. The prime minister has a tough balancing act to maintain.
The Liberal government under Carney will have a grace period, as none of the other parties will be eager to bring the government down and invoke another election soon. The electorate wouldn’t respond favourably to a party forcing the nation into another election until the new government has had a chance to do its job.
The Liberals’ grasp on power could be tenuous, however. If the trade war with the USA cools, public support for the party holding the reins of government for a decade could quickly slide. The average minority government in Canada only lasts 18 months, and while the Conservatives are currently licking their wounds, they aren’t weak.
Carney must show progress on tackling the cost of living and national economic growth within his first year in office, or Canadians will likely be back to the polls. The Liberals won the day, but their national support is fragile.
