Commentary
The alleged onset of a recession in Canada because of two straight quarters of annualized decline in the GDP is in itself nothing to be too concerned about. We are discussing a GDP decline of one-tenth of a percent in the first quarter on top of a decline of one whole percent in the fourth quarter of last year. The apparent fact of a decline in two consecutive quarters incites at least the presumption of a recession. In this case, GDP was influenced by an unusually high level of imports in anticipation of potential tariff increases. This raised inventory that should be reflected in lower imports in many categories in subsequent quarters.
