Opinion
Opinion

China’s Economic Future Can Be Predicted by Population

China’s Economic Future Can Be Predicted by Population
A nurse cares for a newborn at the Women and Children's Hospital in Fuyang City, Anhui Province, China, Aug 8, 2022. CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images
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Commentary

China released its latest population figure for 2022, recording a year-over-year decline, which had not been seen since the Great Leap Forward in the early 1960s. Population growth is important for economic growth because all outputs are produced by labor and capital (non-labor), the two standard input factors. Given a production function in terms of these factors, its change over time (equivalent to roughly GDP growth) will be proportional to the change of these input factors over time. Part of the latter is population growth.

Law Ka-chung
Law Ka-chung
Author
Law Ka-chung is a commentator on global macroeconomics and markets. He has been writing numerous newspaper and magazine columns and talking about markets on various TV, radio, and online channels in Hong Kong since 2005. He covers all types of economics and finance topics in the United States, Europe, and Asia, ranging from macroeconomic theories to market outlook for equities, currencies, rates, yields, and commodities. He has been the chief economist and strategist at a Hong Kong branch of the fifth-largest Chinese bank for more than 12 years. He has a Ph.D. in Economics, MSc in Mathematics, and MSc in Astrophysics.
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