China Crisis: From Sharp Crash to Lost Decade(s)

China Crisis: From Sharp Crash to Lost Decade(s)
Since the second half of last year, the mainland real estate bubble has apparently burst, with property developer Evergrande bearing the brunt, followed by at least 58 real estate companies defaulting on their debts to varying degrees. Photo shows a residential complex built by Evergrande in Beijing. Noel Celis/AFP
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Commentary
A decade ago, China was praised as a miracle. The twin crisis (real estate and debt) will be another miracle. The miracle is, as always, something in story books. In reality, there seems to be no miracle at all. Half to one-third of a century ago, when West Germany and Japan had been regarded as economic miracles to take over the United States, it turned out not to be so. Then the “four little dragons” in Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore) were viewed as another miracle; the bubble popped in just a few years. Later, a quarter of a century ago, it was the BRICS’ turn (China, Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa). Now the leader is making another miracle.
Law Ka-chung
Law Ka-chung
Author
Law Ka-chung is a commentator on global macroeconomics and markets. He has been writing numerous newspaper and magazine columns and talking about markets on various TV, radio, and online channels in Hong Kong since 2005. He covers all types of economics and finance topics in the United States, Europe, and Asia, ranging from macroeconomic theories to market outlook for equities, currencies, rates, yields, and commodities. He has been the chief economist and strategist at a Hong Kong branch of the fifth-largest Chinese bank for more than 12 years. He has a Ph.D. in Economics, MSc in Mathematics, and MSc in Astrophysics.
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