Ths SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust traded higher by 0.7 percent on Thursday, but that should come as no surprise to investors paying close attention to the calendar.
According to Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist for LPL Financial, Oct. 28 has historically been one of the best days of the year for the S&P 500 dating all the way back to 1950. In fact, Oct. 28 was the best day of the year for stocks until the market dropped 3 percent last year.
The average gain for the S&P 500 on Oct. 28 has been 0.46 percent, making it the third best date on the calendar for investors. However, Detrick said the fun has historically not stopped on Oct. 28. Oct. 29 (+0.32 percent), Nov. 2 (+0.32 percent) and Nov. 3 (+0.41 percent) also have extremely strong historical returns. In fact, Oct. 28 marks the beginning of the best five-day stretch of the year for the market since 1950.
What’s Going On?
Third-quarter earnings season may play a role in the historical outperformance in late October and early November, but Detrick has an alternative theory.
“I’d like to think it has something to do with my birthday being on October 28, but the truth is bulls should be aware that the coming days are historically some of the best of the year,” he wrote this week.
Investors can also look forward to the best day of the year coming up before year’s end. The S&P 500 has averaged a 0.5 percent gain on Dec. 26, the day after the market closes for Christmas Day.
Historical calendar trends like these can be fun, but investors shouldn’t rely too much on historical data. With roughly 362 dates of historical data per year, certain days are going to be by default better for investors than others out of pure coincidence.
By Wayne Duggan
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