Is Walt Disney’s Stock Overvalued or Undervalued?

A screen shows the logo and a ticker symbol for the Walt Disney Company on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, on Dec. 14, 2017. (Brendan McDermid/Reuters)

Walt Disney Co. shares have lagged the S&P 500 in 2021, generating a year-to-date loss of 18.5 percent.

Disney stock has had a wild ride in recent years, but investors may be wondering whether there is any value in Disney shares after the recent pullback.

Earnings

A price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is one of the most basic fundamental metrics for gauging a stock’s value. The lower the PE, the higher the value.

For comparison, the S&P 500’s PE is currently at about 29.4, nearly double its long-term average of 15.9. Disney’s PE is 133.9, about 4.5 times higher than the S&P 500 average as a whole.

Growth

Looking ahead to the next four quarters, the S&P 500’s forward PE ratio looks much more reasonable at just 20.8. Disney’s forward earnings multiple of 36.1 is still more than 50 percent higher than the S&P 500’s, making Disney look overvalued.

Disney’s forward PE ratio is also more than 50 percent higher than the average multiple of its communication services sector peers, which are averaging a 21.5 forward earnings multiple.

Yet when it comes to evaluating a stock, earnings aren’t everything.

The growth rate is also critical for companies that are rapidly building their bottom lines. The price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio (PEG) is a good way to incorporate growth rates into the evaluation process.

The S&P 500’s overall PEG is currently about 1.0; Disney’s PEG is 3.14, suggesting Disney is still extremely overvalued after accounting for its growth.

Price-to-sales ratio is another important valuation metric, particularly for unprofitable companies and growth stocks. The S&P 500’s PS ratio is currently 3.19, well above its long-term average of 1.63. Disney’s PS ratio is 4.03, well above S&P 500 average as a whole.

Disney’s PS ratio is also up 37.1 percent over the last five years, suggesting the stock is priced at the high end of its historical valuation range.

Finally, Wall Street analysts see value in Disney stock over the next 12 months. The average analyst price target among the 27 analysts covering Disney is $201, suggesting 36.2 percent upside from current levels.

Verdict

At its current price, Disney stock appears to be overvalued based on a sampling of common fundamental valuation metrics.

By Wayne Duggan 

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