Viewpoints
Opinion

Is Recession Timing Still Unpredictable?

Is Recession Timing Still Unpredictable?
Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on July 27, 2022. Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images
Law Ka-chung
|Updated:
0:00
Commentary

Debate continues as to whether recession still lies ahead. The yield curve has pointed to an 80 percent chance of recession. But, when comparing today’s situation with the comparable U.S. real GDP contraction in 2008, its timing forecast has low accuracy.

Law Ka-chung
Law Ka-chung
Author
Law Ka-chung is a commentator on global macroeconomics and markets. He has been writing numerous newspaper and magazine columns and talking about markets on various TV, radio, and online channels in Hong Kong since 2005. He covers all types of economics and finance topics in the United States, Europe, and Asia, ranging from macroeconomic theories to market outlook for equities, currencies, rates, yields, and commodities. He has been the chief economist and strategist at a Hong Kong branch of the fifth-largest Chinese bank for more than 12 years. He has a Ph.D. in Economics, MSc in Mathematics, and MSc in Astrophysics.
twitter
facebook
Related Topics