India Surpasses China as World’s Most Populous Country

People walk through a market in Bangalore, India, on Nov. 15, 2022. (Manjunath Kiran/AFP via Getty Images)

India has surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, according to the U.N.

The Indian population rose to 1.428 billion, 3 million more than China’s 1.425 billion, according to data from the U.N. Population Fund’s (UNFPA) “State of World Population Report, 2023” on April 19.

India and China now account for more than one-third of the estimated global population of 8.045 billion people.

The demographic data reflects information available as of February, according to the U.N. report.

India, which also has Asia’s third-largest economy, is home to nearly 20 percent of humanity, greater than the entire population of Europe, Africa, or the Americas.

The United States is the third most populous nation, with an estimated population of 340 million people.

China’s Population Ages Out

China is expected by sometime in the 21st century to have one of the world’s oldest populations, economists and demographers say.

U.N. officials have said that it isn’t possible to specify a timeframe because of “uncertainty” about the data coming from both countries and also because India hasn’t conducted a countrywide census since 2011.

The planned census for 2021 was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Population growth in both Asian states has been slowing but at a much faster pace in China than in India.

China’s population fell for the first time in six decades in 2022, a major turn of events that will gradually mark a decline in the number of its aging citizens over the next couple of decades.

That will have strategic implications for the Chinese economy and the globe, as the world’s second-largest economy loses much of its productive workforce.

India, where half the population is younger than the age of 30, will be the world’s fastest-growing major economy by mid-century.

India on Path to Economic Superpower Status

India’s population growth has slowed to an average of 1.2 percent per year since 2011, compared with 1.7 percent in the previous decade, according to data from New Delhi.

Despite the slowdown in growth, the Indian population is forecast to reach 1.668 billion by 2050, while China’s population is expected to decline to about 1.317 billion.

The quickly growing population is expected to put pressure on the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to create jobs for the millions of people entering the workforce, as the country increasingly moves towards an urbanized industrial economy.

“The Indian survey findings suggest that population anxieties have seeped into large portions of the general public,” Andrea Wojnar, representative for UNFPA India, said in a statement.

“Yet, population numbers should not trigger anxiety or create alarm. Instead, they should be seen as a symbol of progress, development, and aspirations if individual rights and choices are being upheld.”

Reuters contributed to this report.