House Prices Fell in September in All 20 US Cities Tracked by S&P Global

A 'For Sale' sign hangs in front of a home in Miami, Fla., on June 21, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Home prices in 20 major cities across the United States fell in September, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, indicating a deceleration in the housing market.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index fell by 1 percent on a monthly basis in September (before seasonal adjustment), with the 10-City composite decreasing by 1.4 percent and the 20-City composite declining by 1.5 percent, according to the S&P Nov. 29 report. After the seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a fall of 0.8 percent, with the 10-City and 20-City composites decreasing by 1.2 percent.

All 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments. The September 10-City composite, though up by 9.7 percent on an annual basis, is down from the 12.1 percent yearly gain in August. Similarly, the 20-City composite, which saw a 10.4 percent annual gain, is down from the 13.1 percent gain in the previous month.

According to Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, the September data are a reflection of home prices declining in the short term and decelerating in the medium term across the United States.

“Prices declined in every city in September … Year-over-year price gains in all 20 cities were lower in September than they had been in August,” Lazzara said, according to the report.

“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be more expensive and housing becomes less affordable. Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”

On a yearly basis, two cities in Florida registered the highest gains, with a 24.6 percent home price increase in Miami and a 23.8 percent jump in Tampa, followed by a 17.8 percent increase in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Quarterly Performance

Home prices have also performed poorly on a quarterly basis, according to a report by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

House prices rose only by 0.1 percent in third quarter 2022, when compared to second quarter 2022, according to an FHFA news release on Nov. 29. Third-quarter prices were higher by 12.4 percent when compared to the year-ago quarter.

William Doerner, Ph.D., supervisory economist in the FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics, pointed out that the rate of house price growth in the United States has “substantially decelerated.”

Such price deceleration is widespread, with a third of all states and metropolitan statistical areas seeing an annual growth of less than 10 percent, he noted.

Experts are predicting home prices to fall in the coming quarters. “We expect a drop of 15–20 percent over the next year, in order to restore the pre-COVID price-to-income ratio,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at the Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a recent note.

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group is expecting U.S. home prices to reach a low point in second quarter 2023, and recover in the following year.