The largest voting minority group in the 2020 elections likely will be Hispanic Americans, who are on track to outpace African Americans for the first time in U.S. history, recent data from the Pew Research Center found.
The projection is a positive sign for President Donald Trump’s 2020 prospects. Under his presidency, Hispanic unemployment broke multiple record lows and Trump’s approval rating among the demographic has reached 50 percent, according to a number of recent major polls. An increasing number of Hispanics also have indicated support for the U.S.–Mexico border wall, while Hispanic turnout at Trump’s recent MAGA rallies has soared.
Pew projects that by the 2020 election, the number of eligible Hispanic voters will reach 13.3 percent of all voters. Meanwhile, the projection for the number of African American voters was slightly lower at 12.5 percent.
“This change reflects the gradual but continuous growth in the Hispanic share of eligible voters, up from 9 percent in the 2008 presidential election and 7 percent in the 2000 election,” the researchers wrote. “The black eligible voter population has grown about as fast as the electorate overall, meaning their share has held constant at about 12 percent since 2000.”
The number of total eligible Hispanic voters, in raw numbers, is projected to be 32 million in 2020, compared to 30 million African Americans. The number of Asian voters, meanwhile, is projected to reach an estimated 11 million in 2020—more than double the 5 million eligible to vote in 2000.
The growth among minorities means that a third of all eligible voters in the United States is projected to be nonwhite in 2020, up from about a quarter in 2000, according to Pew. The projections by Pew as part of their “early look at the 2020 electorate” report were created using data from the Census Bureau’s National Population Projections as a base.
“This increase is at least partially linked to immigration and naturalization patterns: One-in-ten eligible voters in the 2020 election will have been born outside the U.S., the highest share since at least 1970,” researchers wrote.
Steve Cortes, who serves on the president’s Hispanic Advisory Council, wrote in a recent commentary that both the Democrats and the media have failed to grasp Hispanic opinion on illegal immigration.
Cortes referenced a 2018 YouGov/Economist poll that found only 20 percent of Hispanics support “catch and release,” a policy where an illegal immigrant is released into the community while they await a hearing in the immigration court.
“Leftist politicians and their media allies wrongly assume that Hispanics espouse softness on immigration illegality … Indeed, Hispanic Americans often suffer the worst, most immediate consequences of porous borders,” he wrote.
“Too often, Hispanic workers must compete against unfair, illegal labor. In addition, dangerous illegal aliens largely terrorize Hispanic citizens.”
Trends Among Hispanics
Under Trump’s presidency, Hispanic unemployment broke another record low in February, the fourth time since June 2018. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.9 to 4.3 percent between January and February.
Hispanic Americans have enjoyed unemployment below 5 percent in just 17 months of the data stretching back to 1973—16 of those months were in the past two years.
Meanwhile, the poverty rate among Hispanics also has fallen to a historic low of 18.3 percent in 2017, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
For approval ratings, a March poll by national survey research company McLaughlin & Associates revealed that 50 percent of Hispanics approve of how Trump is handling his presidency.
The percentage mirrored results from other major polls. A Marist/NPR/PBS survey conducted in January also placed Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics at 50 percent, while a Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted in February found Trump’s rating among the group was at 45 percent.