Goldman Sachs Cuts US Growth Forecast as Commodity Prices Bite

A customer counts his cash at the register while purchasing an item at a Best Buy store in Flushing, N.Y., on March 27, 2010. (Jessica Rinaldi/Reuters)

SINGAPORE—Goldman Sachs analysts downgraded their forecasts for U.S. economic growth for this year, reckoning that spikes in oil and other commodities since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will hurt spending.

The investment bank cut its annualized growth forecast to 2.9 percent against a previous expectation of 3.1 percent. It expects fourth-quarter real gross domestic product growth of 1.75 percent against a previous forecast of 2 percent.

Goldman analysts, led by Jan Hatzius, said there are additional downside risks if shortages of key metals constrain U.S. production, and put the chance of a recession during the next year at 20 percent-35 percent.