Global Wheat Supply to Crisis Levels; Big China Stocks Won’t Provide Relief

Global Wheat Supply to Crisis Levels; Big China Stocks Won’t Provide Relief
Arnaud Caron, a French farmer drives an old Mc Cormick F8-413 combine as he harvests his last field of wheat, in Vauvillers, northern France on July 23, 2018. Reuters/Pascal Rossignol
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LONDON—A scorching hot, dry summer has ended five years of plenty in many wheat producing countries and drawn down the reserves of major exporters to their lowest level since 2007/08, when low grain stocks contributed to food riots across Africa and Asia.

Although global stocks are expected to hit an all-time high of 273 million tonnes at the start of the 2018/19 grain marketing season, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates, the problem is nearly half of it is in China, which is not likely to release any onto global markets.