Commentary
From the latest dot plot released by the Federal Reserve, the mode value of funds rate implies two more hikes of a quarter percent by yearend. However, careful examination shows there are more dots below the mode than above. Taking into account the dovish tone by chairman Powell, the market does not believe this and still expects only one more ¼ percent hike to complete the cycle. Nevertheless, recent experience shows the “expiry date” of the Fed’s dot plot is very short, so they can change their mind as soon as a few days after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
