Crime, Homelessness, Schools: Perspective on California’s Nov. 8 Elections

A sign with a U.S. flag is seen at a polling station during early voting ahead of the midterm elections in Los Angeles on Nov. 1, 2022. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

Commentary

Just as in the June primary, I thought I might provide an overview of the upcoming Nov. 8 election and its meaning for California.

Although California politicians exaggerate when they boast California now is “the world’s fifth largest economy,” it still is by far America’s biggest economy and most influential state. One only need look at Gov. Gavin Newsom’s call for a Dec. 5 special session of the Legislature to impose a windfall profits tax on the oil companies—which was followed this week by President Biden calling for a similar tax.

Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Kern County likely in January will replace Democrat Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco as House speaker. The job will continue the benefits of government grants going to California, albeit with a shift to GOP-connected companies.

California still is a “donor state,” meaning in 2022 it sent $6.7 billion more to the federal government than it got back in benefits for its people, fourth worst among the states. That would be a lot worse without the clout of those two leaders.

Back in March, I also wrote an Epoch Times article, “Republicans Might Gain House Seats from California.” Using statistical analysis, I calculated, “Republicans would gain four more seats from California, going from 11 to 15. Democrats would go from 41 to 37.” (The state will lose one seat, going to 52.) That is, Republicans will pick up 7.7 percent of the seats. That still seems reasonable. We’ll soon see how prescient I was.

So what else should one look for on the night of the Nov. 8 election?

Governor

Gov. Gavin Newsom is cruising to victory so easily his Republican opponent, state Sen. Brian Dahle (R-Bieber), charged at their only debate the governor really was campaigning for president. What to look for is if Newsom matches his two past victory margins, 61.9 percent in his 2018 election, then another 61.9 percent for “No” on the 2021 recall attempt.

If Newsom gets sharply below that, say 55 percent, it would be a blow to his presidential ambitions, although not a major one.

Superintendent of Public Instruction

It would be revolutionary for state education if Lance Christensen ousted incumbent Tony Thurmond. Christensen is a major advocate for school choice, getting critical race theory out of schools, and parents running local school boards.

Amusingly, the Los Angeles Times first “dis-endorsed” Thurmond, whom they backed in 2018, for this year’s June primary. But they just couldn’t endorse Christensen for the Nov. 8 runoff. Their editorial wrote of the many reasons Thurmond is terrible:

We’ve made no secret of our various disappointments in Thurmond, whom we endorsed in 2018. … He does have ability to use his position to advocate for parents and students, which he has not done to the level we expected. Nor has he been the education leader we needed during the COVID-19 pandemic. His office has been plagued with complaints of toxic leadership and questionable hiring practices. He’s launched several task forces on topics such as literacy and access to technology, and held town hall meetings and panel discussions, but taken too little or misguided action.

But then they hauled up and trashed Christensen:

Here’s the reality: Thurmond may have a weak record, but Christensen’s agenda is worse. He supports private-school vouchers, which would seriously harm public education, and allowing staff-led prayer in schools, such as in the locker room before games, including prayers of specific religions. That’s flat-out proselytizing; even the conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court might not go that far.

Actually, universal vouchers, such as in Arizona, are what’s needed to shake up California’s K-12 education system, which scores among the worst states on national tests. And the U.S. Supreme Court in June ruled the First Amendment allows coaches to pray at games.

The Times:

He also supports the recent Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe vs. Wade. Reproductive rights may not be a major part of education, but the superintendent has some regulatory leeway on sex education and a soapbox to use.

Abortion already is legal in California, and will be made more legal when Proposition 1 unfortunately passes on Nov. 8. The Times is saying Christensen could talk about schools helping schoolgirls get abortions without their parents’ permission. It still would be legal, but parents would find out about it.

Hey, what a great idea for a future initiative! Mandate parents be told if their underage daughter is being advised to get an abortion.

The Times’ basic argument: We didn’t endorse Thurmond because he didn’t reform California’s dismal education system, but we can’t endorse Christensen because he would. George Orwell, call your virtual office.

(Full disclosure: When I was Republican state Sen. John Moorlach’s press secretary, 2017-20, Christensen was chief of staff.)

Controller

Republican Lanhee Chen has been endorsed by all the major papers in the state, including the liberal Times and the San Francisco Chronicle. Incumbent Betty Yee has been incompetent. For example, her last Annual Comprehensive Financial Report was for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2020—28 months ago. Every other state has filed its report.

Democrat Malia Cohen refused to debate Chen. If Chen won, he would be the first Republican to nab a statewide office since 2006.

Chen promises to advance thorough audits and performance reviews of state and local finances. Coming in the wake of the massive spending of recent years because of the massive surpluses, an audit of just how all those hundreds of billions were spent would be revealing.

When he was a state senator, Tom McClintock, now a U.S. congressman, nearly won this office twice, in 2002 losing by just 16,800 votes. He also promised audits and performance reviews. Voters still tend to trust Republicans more on finances, so Chen has a chance.

California Legislature

The key here is whether voters are willing to break the two-thirds supermajorities Democrats enjoy in both houses. The current lineup is nine Republicans to 31 Democrats in the Senate; and 19 Republicans to 60 Democrats in the Assembly, with one Independent.

I can’t do an analysis similar to what I did earlier for U.S. House seats, because the data isn’t there. But just for fun, suppose we use the expected 7.7 percent GOP gain in the House, and apply it to the state Senate and Assembly?

For the Assembly, it would bring six more GOP seats (.077 * 80 = 6.16). But in the Senate, only 20 seats are up, so it would bring only one or two more (.077 * 20 = 1.54). Let’s assume two.

So the tally would go to 11 Republicans in the Senate and 25 in the Assembly.

But the percentages would still be below the one-third threshold, 14 for the Senate and 28 for the Assembly, to boost the Republicans above super-minority status. That means they couldn’t block a two-thirds Democrat vote for a windfall profits tax on oil come the Dec. 5 special session Newsom called.

We’ll soon see if my calculations are right. Or if it’s more tough times ahead for Republicans—and taxpayers.

Los Angeles Mayor

Crime is the big issue, and businessman Rick Caruso has been hammering it. Rep. Karen Bass has been insisting Caruso, a Republican most of his life, then briefly an Independent until he joined Bass in the Democrat Party, still really is a Republican.

This is also the atmosphere where, in San Francisco, three left-wing school board members were recalled earlier this year, followed by radical District Attorney Chas Boudin. And in L.A. itself, an attempt to recall radical D.A. George Gascon fizzled, but the anger remains for many Angelenos.

Also remaining is the homeless lying around defecating in the streets and the degeneration of this once jewel of a city. The last Republican mayor was another moderate businessman, Richard Riordan, elected in 1993. Although there obviously are differences from those times, that was just after the 1992 Rodney King riots and during the crack epidemic.

My guess is the city just wants to clean itself up and picks Caruso.

Conclusion

In many ways, this is the most interesting election in years. For Newsom and the other incumbent Democrats in California, it’s hard to lose when you’re doling out a $100 billion surplus. Yet the state’s problems—crime, homelessness, high taxes and regulations, sky-high housing, inflation, low-performing schools—continue to fester.

A Republican U.S. House, along with a possibly Republican U.S. Senate, will change the national political landscape and create new battles at all levels, especially in California. Newsom’s family is close to the Pelosi family. If or when McCarthy becomes speaker, expect a lot of sparks between him and Newsom.

Then a few days after the election, we’re off to the races for the 2024 presidential election. With Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris of California prime contenders. Newsom is already sparring with Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. And Donald Trump is still out there—tanned, rested, and ready.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.