China sharply reduced military flights near Taiwan during the first half of 2026, prompting speculation that tensions across the Taiwan Strait may be easing after years of escalating pressure.
But according to retired Taiwanese Maj. Gen. Yu Tsung-chi, the apparent lull reflects turmoil inside China’s military rather than a change in Beijing’s ambitions toward Taiwan.
“The battlefield has already arrived,” Yu, former dean of the political warfare college at Taiwan’s National Defense University, told The Epoch Times in a recent interview. “This is a war without gunfire.”
Yu argues that Beijing has shifted from relying primarily on military intimidation to expanding gray-zone operations, psychological warfare, and political infiltration—strategies he believes now pose Taiwan’s greatest security challenge.
Military Activity Falls to 3-Year Low
According to data reported by Taiwan’s state-owned Central News Agency, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) flew 1,334 military aircraft near Taiwan during the first six months of 2026, down by more than half from the same period last year and the lowest level in three years. Taiwan also recorded a record number of days without detecting PLA aircraft operating nearby.
When asked about the decline, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Jiang Bin dismissed suggestions that Beijing had changed its military posture, saying PLA operations in surrounding waters and airspace were “entirely legitimate” and that decisions about their timing were made according to operational requirements.
Yu believes the reduction is largely due to internal upheaval within China’s military leadership.
He said the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) ongoing purge of senior officers has disrupted command structures, leaving few experienced commanders capable of organizing large-scale military exercises.
U.S.-based China current affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan offered similar assessments, saying that many of the PLA’s most important command positions—including those leading military theaters and service branches—have been affected by personnel changes over the past two years, disrupting the military’s chain of command.
With many experienced commanders removed, Yu said, the PLA currently lacks enough senior officers with practical experience planning and executing large-scale exercises, contributing to the decline in military activity around Taiwan.
Yu said that while the personnel shake-up may temporarily delay military action against Taiwan, it could ultimately make the situation more dangerous.
He said many of the dismissed generals understood the practical limits of China’s military capabilities and were aware of the risks involved in attempting to invade Taiwan. In his view, Chinese leader Xi Jinping removed such officers under the banner of anti-corruption because they posed obstacles to his long-term ambitions.
“The next generation of commanders will likely be selected primarily for their political loyalty to Xi,” Yu said. “That increases the risk of strategic miscalculation.”
Military Pressure Gives Way to Gray-Zone Operations
While conventional military activity has declined, pressure below the threshold of armed conflict has continued to expand.
A report released in May by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that Chinese coast guard operations near Taiwan increased dramatically between 2020 and 2025.
The study said the average daily presence of Chinese coast guard vessels near Taiwan grew more than fivefold, while incursions into waters near the median line of the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan’s contiguous zone increased more than fourfold.
Yu said such actions illustrate Beijing’s evolving strategy. Rather than relying solely on military coercion, China increasingly employs gray-zone tactics and psychological operations designed to pressure Taiwan without triggering outright war.
Yu said Beijing increasingly views political influence operations as a more effective means of weakening Taiwan than direct military coercion. Democratic societies, he argued, are particularly vulnerable because authoritarian governments can exploit their openness through disinformation and political infiltration.
