Commentary
China’s second-quarter GDP grew only 0.4 percent on a year-over-year basis but contracted 2.6 percent compared to the first quarter. For years I have been reluctant to comment on the fake figures, but now the releases seem more down to the earth. Although the numbers are broadly in line with the proxy-composite PMI, which floated around 50 in the second quarter, the overall GDP change was still inconsistent with some key numbers, such as industrial profits and retail sales, which declined quite a bit. Moreover, unemployment, especially among the youth, was severe.
