ANALYSIS: Xi Jinping’s Confidant Cai Qi Takes Center Stage, Weakens Premier Li Qiang

Rising influence of Fujian clan overshadows Zhejiang clan in the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.
ANALYSIS: Xi Jinping’s Confidant Cai Qi Takes Center Stage, Weakens Premier Li Qiang
(L-R) Politburo Standing Committee members Cai Qi, Wang Huning and Li Qiang attend the second plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 7, 2023. (GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images)
10/27/2023
Updated:
11/12/2023
0:00

After Chinese leader Xi Jinping gained absolute power at the 20th National Congress, his cronies who have developed personal relationships with him from his previous positions in Fujian, Zhejiang, and Shanghai have become China’s new cabinet members.

But such a combination does not guarantee monolithic unity with the Fujian clan, led by Cai Qi gaining the upper hand over the Zhejiang clan in the recent political struggles.

Li Qiang, a member of the Zhejiang clan, has become the weakest premier in the history of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

In June this year, Mr. Li’s first visit to Europe after becoming the premier was on a chartered plane instead of the premier’s special plane. The downgrading of his status has aroused attention.

The visits of CCP leaders abroad and the specific arrangements are under Mr. Cai’s authority.

China watchers believe that Mr. Li is unlikely to change the previous rules, and this must have been a slight on Mr. Li by Mr. Cai.

Hosting the Government Secretary General Meeting should have been Mr. Li’s authority, but this year, Mr. Cai convened both the National Party Committee and Government Secretary General Meeting in Beijing on Sept. 13 and Sep 14. He conveyed the instructions of Mr. Xi in both meetings.

China watchers have seen this to mean that Mr. Cai’s power has been expanded while Mr. Li’s has been weakened.

Standing Committee member Cai Qi is seen at a press event with members of the new Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and Chinese and Foreign journalists at The Great Hall of People in Beijing on Oct. 23, 2022. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
Standing Committee member Cai Qi is seen at a press event with members of the new Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and Chinese and Foreign journalists at The Great Hall of People in Beijing on Oct. 23, 2022. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

At the 74th National Day celebration on Sept. 28, Mr. Li’s authority was also weakened as never before. In the past, it was customary for the premier to deliver the National Day speech. This year, Mr. Xi delivered the keynote speech, and Mr. Li only served as the meeting host.

Most recently, during the “One Belt, One Road” International Summit in Beijing, which began on Oct. 18, Mr. Xi met with the leaders of various countries and the president of Brazil’s New Development Bank. Mr. Cai accompanied him on each occasion.

On Oct. 20, Mr. Cai also met with the president of Vietnam and the prime minister of Mozambique, while Mr. Li met with the prime ministers of Thailand and Pakistan one after the other on Oct. 19.

As premier, Mr. Li should be the main leader of the summit meeting with the representatives of the visiting countries. But Mr. Cai, who organized the leaders’ meeting and made the schedule, did not follow the rules, and Mr. Li could only follow the arrangement. This shows that Mr. Li has been overshadowed, China watchers say.

All these signs indicate that Mr. Cai is showing off his power and he intends to make outsiders look down on Mr. Li.

Fujian Clan Vs. Zhejiang Clan

Mr. Cai is a native of Fujian and has been seen as a confidant of Mr. Xi’s since the 1980s when Mr. Xi served in various municipal- and provincial-level positions in the southeastern province.

Mr. Cai transferred to eastern Zhejiang Province in 1999 and when Mr. Xi became deputy party chief and later party chief of Zhejiang from 2002 to 2007, Mr. Cai held various provincial administrative positions, which were again subordinate positions to that of Mr. Xi.

Although he was the least qualified and the least favored person at the CCP’s 20th National Congress held in October 2022, Mr. Cai unexpectedly became one of the seven members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo.

Many observers believe he has little talent and relies on his friendship with Mr. Xi, who trusts his loyalty after 20 years of working together in Fujian and Zhejiang.

Cai Qi (right) attends the closing session of the National People's Congress in Beijing's Great Hall of the People on March 15, 2019. (Wang Zhao/AFP/Getty Images)
Cai Qi (right) attends the closing session of the National People's Congress in Beijing's Great Hall of the People on March 15, 2019. (Wang Zhao/AFP/Getty Images)

Mr. Cai is currently a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo, the first-ranked secretary of the Secretariat of the CCP, Vice-Chairman of the National Security Council (NSC), Director of the Central General Office (CGEO), Director of the General Secretary’s Office, and Director of the Office of the National Security Council (NSC).

He is the first member of the Politburo Standing Committee to serve as Director of the Central Office in the 74 years of the CCP’s existence.

In addition, he is also the head of the Central Committee’s Propaganda and Ideology Group and the head of the Central Committee’s Party Building Leadership Group.

Mr. Cai’s duties also include taking charge of party affairs and security, with the biggest security issue being Mr. Xi’s security. He is essentially Mr. Xi’s personal manager.

Mr. Li, a native of Zhejiang Province, is a representative of the Zhejiang clan within Mr. Xi’s faction.

During Mr. Xi’s career in Zhejiang, Mr. Li served as party chief of Wenzhou City and later secretary-general of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee. His experience in economic development comes from Wenzhou’s street-vendor economy. He was promoted to the central government by Mr. Xi and became the first person to become premier without having been a vice-premier.

Mr. Li has been regarded as the CCP’s weakest premier, and he is only a minor role compared to his predecessors.

The influence of the Fujian clan has also been expanding in the leadership team of the State Council under Mr. Li.

For example, Vice Premier He Lifeng is an important figure in the Fujian clan. On the appointment of economic officials, Mr. Li must respect Mr. He’s opinion.

In addition, the public security and armed police are also controlled by the Fujian clan. For example, Xu Ganlu, Vice Minister of Public Security and Director of the National Immigration Administration, Qi Yanjun, Standing Vice Minister of Public Security, and Chen Wenqing, chief of the Political and Legal Committee, all held official positions in Fujian.