September’s new-vehicle sales may set the stage for the remainder of the year.
The global automotive service organization noted that sales volume in September is expected to rise by 6 percent from a year ago but could decline by almost 15 percent from August because of fewer selling days.
“The new-vehicle sales pace has been surprisingly strong this summer and through the third quarter as uncertainty around tariff policy has decreased,” Charlie Chesbrough, Cox Automotive senior economist, said in a company statement.
“Continued low inflation and unemployment rates, coupled with a strong stock market, have kept consumers in a buying mood.”
Chesbrough credited sales of electric vehicles (EVs) as a major contributor to increased sales in recent months. Consumers have until the end of September to take advantage of $7,500 in tax credits for their EV purchases.
“The federal tax credit was a key catalyst for EV adoption, and its expiration marks a pivotal moment,” Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox Automotive director of industry insights, said in the statement.
“This shift will test whether the electric vehicle market is mature enough to thrive on its own fundamentals or still needs support to expand further.”
As a result, the organization expects an influx of EV buyers, forecasting a record 410,000 EVs sold by the end of the third quarter—a 21.1 percent year-over-year hike in sales with a record-breaking 10 percent share of overall vehicle sales.
Cox Automotive predicts that EV sales may slow down in the fourth quarter but remains confident in the long-term growth. Electric vehicle sales hit a record in the fourth quarter of 2024, with 365,824 units sold, or 8.7 percent of total new-vehicle sales.
Compact SUVs have been the biggest sellers in September, with almost 200,000 sold, followed by mid-sized SUVs at more than 175,000 and full-sized pickup trucks at more than 167,000. Mid-sized passenger cars represented the smallest sales segment, at just more than 72,000.
Their report indicates that the four biggest automakers in U.S. sales—General Motors, Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co., and Hyundai Motor Co.—are expected to drive the market in year-over-year volume gains. Cox predicts that the “Big Four” will post combined sales gains of more than 11.2 percent for the third quarter. The remainder of the industry is expected to post sales gains of 0.1 percent.
For year-to-date sales, the “Big Four” are expected to gain 9.1 percent, while other automakers’ sales could decline by 2 percent.
Chesbrough said he believes that as more tariffed products replace existing inventory, prices may be pushed higher to pass along higher import costs to consumers.
Cox’s full-year forecast sales range from 15.8 million to 16.4 million, with a baseline of 16.1 million. At the end of the second quarter, it adjusted the baseline to 15.7 million sales.
Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises, a privately owned Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. The company has 29,000 employees on five continents.
