S&P 500 Reversal or Bear Market Rally? Why ‘Path of Least Resistance Is Probably Lower’ for Stocks

S&P 500 Reversal or Bear Market Rally? Why ‘Path of Least Resistance Is Probably Lower’ for Stocks
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on July 25, 2022. Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust rallied 1.5 percent on Wednesday as earnings reports from Visa Inc., Alphabet Inc., and others reassured investors the U.S. consumer remains strong. Yet the second-quarter earnings season has been a mixed bag up to this point, and the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it will raise interest rates by at least another 0.75 percent.

The S&P 500 is now up 2 percent in the last month, leading some traders to conclude the 2022 market bottom is in and inflation has likely peaked. The S&P 500 remains down 16.9 percent year-to-date, and the recent gains could just as easily be a bear market rally as well.

Case for a Bear Market Rallybear market 

On Wednesday, Merk analyst Nick Reece said the last month of trading action looks like nothing more than a textbook rally at this point.