Inversion of Key US Yield Curve Slice Is a Recession Alarm

Inversion of Key US Yield Curve Slice Is a Recession Alarm
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, on Jan. 10, 2022. Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Reuters
Updated:

NEW YORK—A closely monitored section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted on Tuesday for the first time since September 2019, a reflection of market concerns that the Federal Reserve could tip the economy into recession as it battles soaring inflation.

For a brief moment, the yield on the two-year Treasury note was higher than that of the benchmark 10-year note. That part of the curve is viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession could come in the next year or two.