Home Depot Lowers Outlook as Mild Weather, Reduced Home Spending Hits Sales

For the first time in a decade, a hurricane didn’t make landfall on U.S. shores in September.

A Home Depot store in Columbia, Md., on Sept. 18, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Mild fall weather across the country—a hurricane didn’t make landfall on U.S. shores in September for the first time in a decade—coupled with homeowners’ reining in spending on home improvement projects led to lower-than-expected third-quarter earnings at Home Depot.

The home improvement giant on Nov. 18 reported sales of $41.4 billion, a 2.8 percent increase from the same quarter in 2024, with net earnings of $3.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $3.74. Those numbers were essentially flat from the same quarter in 2024, when it recorded net earnings of $3.6 billion and $3.78 per share.

Home Depot’s earnings, however, fell short of analyst expectations of $3.84 per share. Its stock slid by 6 percent on the news, closing at $336.

Ted Decker, Home Depot’s chairman, president, and CEO, noted that consumer demand has remained relatively stable, but an expected increase in sales during the quarter failed to materialize.

“Our results missed our expectations primarily due to the lack of storms in the third quarter, which resulted in greater than expected pressure in certain categories,” Decker said.

“Consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand.”

Home Depot revised its full-year earnings guidance downward based on those trends.

Annual revenue growth is expected to be 3 percent, an increase from its forecast of 2.8 percent, but same-store sales growth is expected to be only “slightly positive” after an earlier forecast of 1 percent growth. Full-year earnings per share are projected to dip by 5 percent compared with fiscal year 2024, much steeper than previously announced expectations of a 2 percent decline.

Billy Bastek, Home Depot’s executive vice president of merchandising, said in a conference call with analysts that the lack of inclement weather during the quarter led to softer-than-expected sales in plywood, roofing materials, and power generation products.

Shipments of roofing products in the third quarter were down double-digit percentage points because of the lack of any significant storms, Decker added.

“We do not plan for storms per se, but there is always some weather impact in the baseline,” Decker said in a discussion with financial analysts. “Given last year, pretty significant storm activity, and this year, truly zero. We saw that most acutely in October. That was the single heaviest impacted month.”

Despite slight declines in interest and mortgage rates for the quarter following the Federal Reserve’s decision to trim interest rates by a quarter-point, an expected increase in home improvement spending also failed to materialize, Decker said.

He also said that ongoing uncertainty about the direction of the housing market is expected to continue affecting sales of home improvement products throughout the fourth quarter.

“We’re looking at something as much as a $50 billion cumulative underspend in normal repair and remodel activity in U.S. housing,” Decker said.