GDP Prints at a Technical Recession

But how deep and for how long? We think less than most due to an import and inventory anomaly.

The U.S. economy shows recessionary signs and if not already in recession is likely to go into one relatively soon. Maria Vonotna/Shutterstock

Commentary

NEW YORK—GDP printed at -0.9 percent this morning, 1.4 percentage points worse than market expectations of +0.5 percent. We had estimated the GDP to print up between nil to 0.5 percent up in our June Jobs Report. We attribute the “miss” to a continuing anomaly from the ports being cleared, discussed more below.