June Jobs Beats Estimates; Recession Is a ‘Jump Ball’

Ominous signs of recession abound, but its not clear it will happen; more likely early 2023

A "now hiring" sign is posted in the window of an ice cream shop in Los Angeles, Calif., on Jan. 28, 2022. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

June jobs printed at 372,000 new jobs, well above the consensus estimate of 268,000. The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent, unchanged from last month, but down from last June’s 5.9 percent. The labor force participation rate was 62.2 percent, up from the 61.6 percent that printed in June 2021, but down 10 basis points (bps, defined as 1/100th of a percentage point) from last month.