Dollar Holds Last Week’s Gains With US Inflation Data in Focus

Dollar Holds Last Week’s Gains With US Inflation Data in Focus
U.S. one-dollar bills are curled and inspected during production at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington on Nov. 14, 2014. Gary Cameron/Reuters
Reuters
Updated:
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SINGAPORE/LONDON—The dollar held on to most of last week’s gains on Monday after posting its biggest weekly rise against a basket of other major currencies since July, putting a halt to the declines seen in late 2023.

The euro was little changed at $1.0934, bruised after a 0.9 percent fall last week brought its recent rally to a sudden end. The yen was a touch firmer at 144.5 per dollar, having weakened sharply from 140.8 per dollar at the start of the year.

That left the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six other currencies, at 102.53.

The index gained 1 percent last week, the most in six months, as data showed a sharp slowdown in inflation around the world, driving expectations of central bank rate cuts, particularly by the Federal Reserve, and sparking a rally in equities.

The combination of higher equity prices and lower U.S. Treasury yields is typically bad for the dollar but Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, said there had been a “bit of indigestion” in markets since the start of the year.

“Everyone basically left (last) year (set for) the Fed to aggressively ease policy, growth conditions to pick up in the rest of the world, thinking everyone’s good, just buy equities. We’ve had a bit of a reality check.”

Markets are now pricing roughly a 60 percent chance that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in march, down from about 90 percent at the end of December.

A reading on U.S. inflation due on Thursday could again alter those views, after data on Friday showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in December while raising wages at a solid clip, pointing to a still-resilient labour market.

However, a separate survey out the same day showed the U.S. services sector slowed considerably last month, with a measure of employment dropping to the lowest level in nearly 3–1/2 years, painting a mixed picture of the world’s largest economy.

Elsewhere, sterling lost 0.24 percent to stand at $1.2688, and the Australian dollar fell 0.27 percent to $0.66955. Both currencies are sensitive to swings in global market sentiment, with stocks trading lower.

The Swiss franc was a touch softer at $0.8505 per dollar.

By Rae Wee and Alun John