New Delhi-based media, Mizzima News, reported on Aug 30 that the Burmese censorship board, typically referred to as the Press Kempeitai, had told the Rangoon journal to remove several paragraphs of the article or it would not be published. The article concerned Suu Kyi’s personal pilgrimage to Bagan, an ancient temple complex in central Burma (also known as Myanmar). When the journal informed Suu Kyi that her article could not be published in full, she withdrew the article.
It happened shortly after Suu Kyi was allowed to travel outside the capital and meet President Thein Sein and the United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tomas Ojea Quintana. At the same time, Burma’s highest officials vowed to Quintana that they would bring about an improvement in human rights, engage in peace talks with armed groups, and open the door for exiles to return.
The meeting between President Thein Sein and Suu Kyi in the military-found capital Yangon (renamed Naypyitaw) was welcomed by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and also by U.S. Sen. John McCain.
“This is a small but very positive step, and I hope it represents the beginning of a real and meaningful process of dialogue and reconciliation between Aung San Suu Kyi and the government in Naypyitaw,” wrote Sen. McCain in a statement.
Aung San Suu Kyi, 66, has spent 15 of the past 21 years under house arrest and was last released from detention on Nov. 13. She remains the country’s symbol of democracy and opponent to the military regime that took power in Burma in 1962 with a coup.
Read more on Suu Kyi’s test of freedom . . .
Ulterior Motives
Burma is one of the poorest countries in the world, compounded by severe economic sanctions, put in place by Western nations after the ruling military junta crushed a 1988 student uprising. The sanctions will not be lifted until there are concrete reforms, including the release of 2,000 political prisoners.
According to analysts, Suu Kyi is the only person, who can help the former generals avoid isolation, and regain legitimacy in front of the international community.
Professor Robert I. Rotberg, president of the World Peace Foundation, said that Burma’s junta is attempting to cooperate with Suu Kyi by giving her slightly more freedom within Burma in order to moderate Western sanctions. He believes that China, the key influence on Burma, may have urged the junta to loosen up a little, in order to “regularize” its relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the world. China would also gain if Burma were recognized as an ally and not an outcast.
“Suu Kyi obviously still has a broad following, which could worry the junta, but if they can put her on a ‘leash,’ she becomes their operative and is denied agency of her own,” wrote professor Rotberg in an e-mail.
Patricia Taft, senior associate of The Fund for Peace, agrees.
“Suu Kyi has credibility with the West that no other political figure within the government or junta has. If her group reaches an accommodation with the government, it could serve as a reason for Western nations to lift political and economic embargoes,” wrote Taft from Washington, D.C.
Taft explained that according to diplomats, political analysts, and people in Burma, the retired generals, brought back to power after a controversial election last year, may see moves toward reform as the key to their survival. But this is just for show.
“The government is doing this to give the impression that they are making legitimate efforts toward change,” she said.
“If the government begins significant political prisoner releases and develops a serious negotiation with the remaining insurgent groups; if the new Parliament becomes a mechanism for debating and addressing long-standing political and social problems; and if serious legal reform develops, then I will be very encouraged that things are finally on the right track in Burma,” wrote Clapp in an e-mail.
“Whether [these steps] are real or are simply being staged by the new government to gain international legitimacy … only time will determine the answer to this question.”
Is the military Junta ready for change?
No Real Change
Zoya Phan, international coordinator at Burma Campaign U.K. is confident there is no real change in Burma, despite recent positive signs.
“There was no genuine change or improvement, they just took once step back, and then one forward; we were left in the same place. So far the only real change in Burma is that the dictatorship has got better at public relations,” wrote Phan in an e-mail from London.
A sense of skepticism appears to be widespread across Burma, after many years of terror under the stern military rule. Many expect a repeat of history from 2003, when Suu Kyi’s motorcade was attacked by the military and more than 100 of her supporters were killed. At that time she had also just been released from prison and was allowed to travel. That attack resulted in her successive arrest, which continued until November 2010.
Speaking by phone from Bangkok, Toe Zaw Latt, Thailand bureau chief of the Democratic Voice of Burma, said he had been initially excited about Suu Kyi’s release in 2003.
“I almost thought this was the breakthrough. But it didn’t happen. Burmese politics is up and down all the time. [What is happening] is a good sign! But do I have high hopes? No, I am skeptical about it,” he said.
Although the current president is more moderate, Latt says he is still a former military general and is unlikely to influence the hard-liners that still rule Burma behind the scenes.
That, he says is why nobody can predict what their approach toward Suu Kyi might be.
“Burma is ruled by the military, my friend. If she crosses the line, nobody knows what the government will do: they are all former generals with the army behind them,” sighed Latt.
Fear of riots
Indeed, the authorities warned of possible riots before the meetings of Suu Kyi and her supporters, apparently worried of big crowds cheering their icon.
According to Kendall Lawrence, researcher at the Fund for Peace, these warnings could represent a fear of bad press that possible attacks on Suu Kyi might generate; alternatively it could also be a way for Burmese authorities to deny responsibility if something did occur.
Supporters themselves have other fears: “Supporters of Suu Kyi feared that the warning the junta issued before her travels was a threat, and they feared that there would be a planned government attack,” wrote Lawrence in an e-mail from Washington, D.C.
But for Tim Aye-Hardy, director of Burma Global Action Network, these were not just warnings, but rather threats and reminders to Suu Kyi and the people of Burma that the regime will use any means possible to stop her if the public dares to start protests. In a telephone interview from New York, Aye-Hardy recalled the 2003 Dipeyin Massacre, where Suu Kyi was attacked and narrowly escaped.
“We can never underestimate their willingness or capability to initiate riots and chaos, and use violent means to crush them”, he said.
At the same time, Aye-Hardy emphasized that the government may not feel threatened by Suu Kyi’s straightforward speeches and interviews with foreign media because most people inside Burma do not have access to her speeches. Only around 1 percent of the population has access to the Internet and that is severely restricted and censored in Burma.
“The government only allowed domestic journals and newspapers to publish her pictures on the front page about two weeks ago,” he said.
Tin Maung Htoo, executive director of Canadian Friends of Burma, is more positive saying the recent Arab Spring may drive authorities to make changes, whether they want them or not.
“The new regime eventually has no choice but to let opposition play an important role in the political process of Burma, including the state-building and policymaking process,” he wrote in an e-mail. “The military will gradually withdraw from the dominant position, as they feel comfortable and safe from any reprisals and repercussion.”
However, it may take 10 years to see “that kind of situation in the country,” he noted.
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