Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sanders tied with 27 percent each in a newly released Emerson University poll, with Warren in third with 20 percent. That was a boost of 2 percent for Sanders since Emerson’s October poll; Warren was down one point.
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg had 7 percent, entrepreneur Andrew Yang had 4 percent, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) had 3 percent.
Billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who just joined the race, garnered just one percent, similar to former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, who also recently joined.
Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson polling, said in a statement that “the only angle and hope candidates like Bloomberg or Patrick have for the nomination is a brokered convention, and while unlikely, the elimination of Super Delegates in 2020 makes it more possible though it hasn’t happened since 1952 for either party.”
Emerson polled 468 Democratic voters and that portion of the survey had a margin of error of 4.6 percent.
“Biden and Sanders continue to hold their bases, which should concern Warren, as she has waited for one of the front runners to slip these past few months—yet, their support seems to be crystalizing,” Kimball stated.
Asked if they’d support the Democratic nominee for president even if that nominee wasn’t their first choice in the primaries, just 61 percent of Sanders supporters said they were very likely to do so, compared to 77 percent of Biden supporters, 80 percent of Warren supporters, and 93 percent of Buttigieg’s supporters.
Biden has been the frontrunner in national polls for months but Warren overtook Sanders for second place in most polls in July. Her polling has trended down since early October while Sanders has edged up, leading to his overtaking her for second place in the national polling average.
Biden currently stands at 29.8 percent, Sanders at 19.3 percent, and Warren at 18.5 percent.
Buttigieg is fourth with 7.8 percent, Harris is fifth with 4 percent, Yang is sixth with 2.8 percent, and Bloomberg is next with 2.3 percent. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) is the only other candidate with an average of 2 percent or better, with 2 percent.
The three polls out before Emerson’s survey showed Biden with strong leads of at least 8 percent.
An Economist/YouGov survey (pdf), for instance, showed Biden with 30 percent support, Warren with 22 percent, Sanders with 12 percent, and Buttigieg with 9 percent.
A Hill/Harris X survey released recently showed Biden with 30 percent, Sanders with 18 percent, Warren with 15 percent, and Buttigieg with 7 percent. Bloomberg garnered 3 percent in that poll.