Venezuela After Chávez, a Very Uncertain Place

Hugo Chávez appears determined to control Venezuela’s future, even as he is dying of cancer, and no country would be more pleased if he could than China.

Evan Ellis is professor of national security studies, modeling, gaming and simulation with the Center for Hemisphere Defense Studies. Dr. Ellis spoke on a panel April 12, at AEI on After Hugo Chavez: China’s Strategic Advance in Venezuela. Gary Feuerberg/The Epoch Times

WASHINGTON—Hugo Chávez appears determined to control Venezuela’s future, even as he is dying of cancer, and no country would be more pleased if he could than China. Over the last several years, Beijing has taken a keen interest in keeping the Chávez regime afloat, principally to keep alive the sweetheart deals for Venezuelan oil that Chávez signed away to China.

Now, given Chávez’s compromised situation, and the tussle to fill the coming power vacuum, Venezuela is facing a complicated and potentially dangerous future and China must also decide how to play it.

China’s Oil Interests

Since coming to power in February 1999, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has campaigned against American and Western “imperialism” in Latin America. His power and popularity are built upon fiery speeches, the nationalization of strategic industries, the creation of alternative regional institutions, and an edifice of social welfare programs designed to maintain his popular support.

He has invited like-minded countries, such as Cuba, China, Russia, and Iran, into the country to displace American, European, and even local investors. Chinese financial and technical support plays a key role in keeping the regime going.