NEW YORK—Republican Bob Turner beat Democrat David Weprin in the special election on Tuesday for the 9th Congressional District seat formerly held by Democrat Anthony Weiner. Turner led 54 to 46 percent, according to unofficial tallies released by the State Board of Elections on Wednesday afternoon.
Republicans hailed the victory in the predominantly Democrat area as a sign that President Barack Obama’s support is waning, and Democrats will see losses in the general election in November 2012.
One of the reasons Obama may have lost support in this district in particular is his policies on Israel, which are perceived by some as anti-Israeli. The 9th district is one of the most Jewish districts in the nation.
Thomas L. Brunell, political sciences professor at the University of Texas, thinks special elections can help predict general election outcomes.
By studying U.S. House of Representatives special elections from 1900 to 2008, Brunell found that when Republicans win in a Democrat-dominant area, they win an average of 66.7 percent of seats in the following general election.
He notes, however, that seats often become vacant because of scandal “which could influence how voters perceive the would-be successor to the seat from the same party.”
Democrat Anthony Weiner’s lewd texting scandal may have added to the anti-Democrat sentiment.
Eric Ostermeier, research associate at Humphrey School of Public Affairs at Minnesota, says special elections don’t tell the future.
In May, Democrats made the opposite claim that Democrats were heading for general election victory when a Democrat won a special election for the 26th Congressional District seat in the Republican-dominated area between Buffalo and Rochester, Ostermeier points out.
Ostermeier studied 18 special elections for Congressional Seats in New York over the last 50 years. He found them to be more competitive than general elections. The margin of victory was an average of 25.4 points, compared to the margin in general elections of 47.3 points. Partisan power shifts were also common.
“The competitiveness in these U.S. House contests has less to do with shifts in the national political barometer and more to do with the simple fact that these are open seat races, which are usually more competitive than contests with incumbents on the ballot,” Ostermeier says.
Republicans hailed the victory in the predominantly Democrat area as a sign that President Barack Obama’s support is waning, and Democrats will see losses in the general election in November 2012.
One of the reasons Obama may have lost support in this district in particular is his policies on Israel, which are perceived by some as anti-Israeli. The 9th district is one of the most Jewish districts in the nation.
Thomas L. Brunell, political sciences professor at the University of Texas, thinks special elections can help predict general election outcomes.
By studying U.S. House of Representatives special elections from 1900 to 2008, Brunell found that when Republicans win in a Democrat-dominant area, they win an average of 66.7 percent of seats in the following general election.
He notes, however, that seats often become vacant because of scandal “which could influence how voters perceive the would-be successor to the seat from the same party.”
Democrat Anthony Weiner’s lewd texting scandal may have added to the anti-Democrat sentiment.
Eric Ostermeier, research associate at Humphrey School of Public Affairs at Minnesota, says special elections don’t tell the future.
In May, Democrats made the opposite claim that Democrats were heading for general election victory when a Democrat won a special election for the 26th Congressional District seat in the Republican-dominated area between Buffalo and Rochester, Ostermeier points out.
Ostermeier studied 18 special elections for Congressional Seats in New York over the last 50 years. He found them to be more competitive than general elections. The margin of victory was an average of 25.4 points, compared to the margin in general elections of 47.3 points. Partisan power shifts were also common.
“The competitiveness in these U.S. House contests has less to do with shifts in the national political barometer and more to do with the simple fact that these are open seat races, which are usually more competitive than contests with incumbents on the ballot,” Ostermeier says.
