The projections are based on structural, not cyclical shifts, and they don’t include the impacts of the CCP virus on the economy. Factors taken into account include trends such as population and productivity growth, as well as the rate of economic expansion.
“Slower labor force growth constrains the projected growth of total employment,” the agency said, also projecting a sharp rebound in productivity growth, which is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent from 2019 to 2029, compared to 1.1 percent growth from 2009 to 2019.
The Labor Department noted that while technological advancements are expected to drive rapid employment growth in some sectors, including professional, business, and scientific services, they will fuel job cuts in other sectors, like manufacturing.
“Factors contributing to the loss of manufacturing jobs include the adoption of new productivity-enhancing technologies, such as robotics and international competition,” the agency said.
The manufacturing sector, which includes 12 of the 20 industries projected to suffer the fastest employment declines, is projected to shed 444,800 jobs over the next decade, the most of any sector.
Retail trade, another industry impacted by technological advancement, is projected to lose 368,300 jobs in the time period in question.
The agency noted a slight decline in the population growth rate and a relatively sharp drop in labor force participation.
“The decline in labor force participation is due to the aging of the baby-boom generation, a continuation of the declining trend in men’s participation, and a slight decline in women’s participation,” the agency stated.
Meanwhile, a separate report issued on Sept. 2 by ADP, jointly developed by Moody’s Analytics, shows that U.S. private payrolls increased less than expected in August, suggesting that the labor market recovery was slowing as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on and fiscal stimulus fades.
It comes amid other signs of persistent labor market weakness during the pandemic, with weekly new applications for unemployment benefits hovering around 1 million.
The Labor Department is set to release its much-anticipated jobs report on Sept. 4, with a Reuters survey predicting that U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 1.4 million jobs in August, which would leave them at about 11.5 million below their pre-pandemic level.