How Does a Recession Begin?

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10/5/2023Updated: 10/6/2023

Commentary

We have been emphasizing here that the yield curve is a very powerful predictor of recession, that whenever a three-month yield (on Bonds) is lower than that of a ten-year by over 50 basis points (bps) or for over two months, the inversion is deemed reliable.

Law Ka-chung

Author

Law Ka-chung is a commentator on global macroeconomics and markets. He has been writing numerous newspaper and magazine columns and talking about markets on various TV, radio, and online channels in Hong Kong since 2005. He covers all types of economics and finance topics in the United States, Europe, and Asia, ranging from macroeconomic theories to market outlook for equities, currencies, rates, yields, and commodities. He has been the chief economist and strategist at a Hong Kong branch of the fifth-largest Chinese bank for more than 12 years. He has a Ph.D. in Economics, MSc in Mathematics, and MSc in Astrophysics.

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