ANALYSIS: Will Chicago’s Next Mayor Be Able to Fix the City’s Crime Problem? Experts Weigh In

Union organizer and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson speaks after being projected winner as mayor in Chicago on April 4, 2023. (Alex Wroblewski/Getty Images)

News Analysis

Brandon Johnson, a progressive Democrat, will be sworn in as the 57th mayor of Chicago on May 15, following his upset victory in last month’s runoff election. He faces increasing crime and below-par public education trends—and it'll only get worse, according to experts who spoke with The Epoch Times.

Johnson, 47, succeeds Democrat Lori Lightfoot, who lost in the Feb. 28 primary following years of complaints about her administration’s handling of issues ranging from COVID-19 to public safety. Johnson, who was initially elected in 2018 to the Cook County Board of Commissioners, defeated Paul Vallas, a 69-year-old moderate Democrat, in the April 4 runoff.

Chicago is the county seat of Cook County.

“When Brandon Johnson takes over as mayor, Chicago’s ills will intensify and exacerbate the city’s experience with the urban doom loop,” Jordan McGillis, a policy analyst at the conservative think tank Manhattan Institute, told The Epoch Times.

“While Lori Lightfoot is seen on the right as a progressive, there’s a strong contrast between Johnson’s tenor and Lightfoot’s on Chicago’s biggest problems, crime, and educational quality.”

‘A Deeply Conciliatory Tone’

Indeed, one of the biggest issues in the election was public safety.

As of April 23, overall violent crime has increased by 45 percent, according to the Chicago Police Department.

Murders are down by 9 percent from 2022, sexual assaults are up by 3 percent, and robberies have increased by 14 percent. Aggravated batteries are up 7 percent, burglaries have increased by 6 percent, and thefts are up by 23 percent.

Most alarmingly, motor vehicle thefts have increased by 135 percent.

Johnson came under fire from Vallas and other critics for advocating for defunding the police but sought to walk that position back ahead of the runoff. Nonetheless, experts said that public safety may worsen on Johnson’s watch.

“On crime and public disorder, Johnson takes a deeply conciliatory tone, whereas Lightfoot maintains that some accountability must be held,” McGillis said.

“Johnson’s administration has already made it clear that it will preserve many of the unproductive policies administered by Lightfoot, including handcuffing the Chicago Police Department, maintaining Chicago as a ’sanctuary city,' emboldening criminals, and excessively taxing and regulating what remains of Chicago’s once-thriving local businesses,” said Chris Talgo, an editor and writer at free-market think tank The Heartland Institute.

“In many ways, Johnson’s administration could be much worse than Lightfoot’s. To date, Johnson has alluded that he will further drain Chicago’s already beleaguered police budget.”

Johnson had been a supporter of the “Defund the Police” movement, which he, in 2020, called an “actual, real political goal.” Johnson has since sought to distance himself from that cause.

Johnson told Laura Washington, a political analyst for ABC’s Chicago affiliate, at a forum in March that he “said it was a political goal.”

“I never said it was mine,” Johnson said.

“As far as my vision for public safety, I’m not going to defund the police.”

Nonetheless, according to experts, Johnson’s past support for defunding law enforcement is a cause for concern.

“It’s clear he believes that less policing is good for our community when, in fact, just the opposite is true,” Zack Smith, a legal fellow and manager of the Supreme Court and Appellate Advocacy Program at the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Meese Center, told The Epoch Times.

“We know what works to reduce crime. Putting more police on the streets, empowering them to do their jobs in a professional and responsible manner, and making sure criminals get prosecuted. None of those things seem to be a priority.”

Smith noted that Johnson will be working with Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, who has come under fire since taking office in 2016 from critics who say she’s soft on crime.

“Based on her policies, I think it’s clear her tenure as district attorney has been a failed tenure,” Smith said.

That tenure has been so turbulent that a veteran prosecutor, Jason Poje, quit with a blistering May 5 letter to colleagues that blasted Foxx.

“What happens with the police department isn’t really going to matter if you have a rogue district attorney or a rogue state’s attorney in office who’s not going to prosecute crime,” Smith said.

While Illinois abolished cash bail, the change, which was scheduled to take effect this past New Year’s Day, was put on hold by the state’s Supreme Court.

“Because at the end of the day, criminals, for all their flaws, they’re not stupid,” Smith said. “They realize that even if they get arrested, they’re probably not going to be held without bail. They’re probably going to be released back onto the street, and then the district attorney or the state’s attorney there isn’t going to prosecute them.

“[Criminals] understand the message that’s being sent. And so it’s really going to be the city, making sure they have adequate funding and staffing for their police, and getting a state’s attorney in there who’s going to actually prosecute crimes.”

Foxx recently announced that she won’t seek reelection in 2024. That could provide Chicagoans an opportunity to put in someone who can serve as a bulwark to Johnson’s public safety agenda.

“It would certainly help,” said Smith, who noted that when Chicago police bring the state’s attorney’s office “a case to prosecute, it’s important that they follow through and actually prosecute, assuming there’s the evidence.

“It would certainly be,” he said. “If you have a prosecutor who is committed to upholding the law, to doing their job, to seeking justice for victims and holding criminals, particularly violent criminals, accountable, that would be a significant improvement over the current situation in Cook County in the city of Chicago.”

Public School System

Another major issue in Chicago is education.

Chicago’s high school graduation rate is 78.4 percent, as students have struggled to demonstrate proficiency in mathematics and reading.

At the elementary school level, the test score proficiency is 21 percent in math and 25 percent in reading. At the middle school level, the test score proficiency is 21 percent in math and 24 percent in reading.

At the high school level, the test score proficiency is 23 percent in math and 21 percent in reading.

“Johnson tacked much further to the left in this election campaign than Lightfoot ever did, garnering the backing of the powerful teachers union, of which Lightfoot was at times critical during her tenure," McGillis said.

Talgo said, “Johnson has also made it clear that he intends to reward Chicago’s failing public school system, which is not that big of a surprise considering Johnson’s campaign was almost exclusively funded by the Chicago Teachers Union.”

Immigration

Another issue facing the Windy City is the surge in migrants that have been illegally crossing the U.S.–Mexico border.

On May 3, Johnson criticized governors who have been sending illegal immigrants to Democrat-led cities, including Chicago, which he has pledged to maintain as a sanctuary city for illegal aliens.

“We have, you know, governors at the border that have demonstrated that they are not willing to collaborate in a real way, and so that is, of course, very disappointing,” he said at a press conference to introduce the city’s incoming interim police chief.

Johnson noted that he’s “prepared to have conversations with everyone, in particular, those who may use this as a weapon against cities.”

He accused the governors of using illegal immigrants as a “political football,” something he called “unconscionable.”

Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who represent a state that’s been overrun amid the migrant crisis, fired back at Johnson.

“I would ask the question, ‘What are the governors of border states like Texas supposed to do and these border communities that are being overwhelmed?’” Cornyn told The Epoch Times.

“I think [Texas] Gov. [Greg] Abbott and [Florida] Gov. [Ron] DeSantis and others who have bused migrants and basically facilitated their travel to some of these cities like New York, Washington, and Chicago, they’ve done so in desperation, trying to gain the president’s attention, thinking, ‘Well, he won’t listen to Republicans. Maybe he’ll listen to Democrats, and maybe he‘ll listen to these mayors of large cities.’”

Cruz called Johnson a hypocrite.

“There’s no shortage of hypocritical Democratic mayors who are perfectly happy for America to have open borders and to have 6 million people cross illegally, the vast majority of whom crossed into the state of Texas and to say, ‘It’s not my problem,’” Cruz told The Epoch Times.

“And yet when the illegal immigrants arrive to their city, they hysterically and hypocritically declare an emergency. It is an emergency. It is a crisis. But it’s a crisis caused by Democrats deliberately.”

He ridiculed Democrats, including Johnson, for shedding “crocodile tears.”

Cruz offered a remedy to Democrat mayors, whose circle Johnson will soon join.

“For every Democrat mayor who screams and howls when illegal immigrants arrive in their cities, they have an easy solution: Pick up the phone and call the White House. Joe Biden could solve this problem today,” he said. “He doesn’t want to.”

‘Further to the Left’ on Fiscal Policy

Finally, Johnson wants to raise $800 million in new taxes, although not property taxes, which are already high in Chicago.

“On fiscal matters, again, Johnson is further to the left,“ McGillis said. ”All of these factors are going to further incentivize departures from the city of businesses and people with wealth.”

Businesses that left Chicago during Lightfoot’s tenure have included Aldi, Caterpillar, Citadel, Tyson Foods, and Boeing.

At the end of the day, Chicagoans wanted the same policies—just not the same person implementing them.

“Unfortunately, the voters of Chicago sent a clear message that they want more of the same,” Talgo said. “On one hand, Chicagoans constantly complain about the decline of the city, particularly the high cost of living, rampant crime, homelessness, and degradation of city services.

“However, instead of going in a different direction and electing Paul Vallas, Chicagoans are doubling-down on radical leftist policies, which have turned the city into a national laughingstock.”

Johnson’s representatives didn’t respond by press time to a request by The Epoch Times for the incoming mayor’s reaction to his critics.