After making the playoffs for the 16th time in 17 seasons the New York Yankees head into the off-season with some work to be done, namely in their starting rotation.
While they wisely avoided putting ace C.C. Sabathia on the free agent market by adding money to his deal, that’s just one starter. There are four more slots to fill with plenty of question marks looking to fill it.
Presumably between Ivan Nova/Phil Hughes/A.J. Burnett the Yankees can fill the final two spots in the rotation. All three are capable of putting up good seasons, they just haven’t done it together. Assuming no rookies make the staff, they need two more reliable options.
Based on past Yankee off-seasons, here are five most likely scenarios that will happen to fill the two spots, beginning with the most likely:
1. Re-sign Freddy Garcia. This is probably the biggest no-brainer. The 35-year-old was 12-8 with a 3.62 ERA last season for which he was paid a fraction of the $1.5 million Kei Igawa received.
Why it might not happen: Age. Garcia may want to see if anyone will invest more than a year in a 35-year-old with an extensive medical history.
2. Sign C.J. Wilson. Wilson was considered the top pitcher to hit the market until he put up a 5.79 ERA in 28 postseason innings this October. The disappointing performance may have killed his chances to get number-one starter money, but even Burnett makes $16.5 million.
Why it won’t happen: A smart front office. Wilson’s pitching benefits from the great infield defense Texas has. Maybe more telling than anything though is Texas’ glacier-like movement to re-sign him.
3. Sign Mark Buehrle. The 32-year-old three-time Gold Glove winner has been the model of consistency for the White Sox since joining the staff in 2001. Buehrle has made 30 or more starts every season since being called while sporting a career ERA of 3.83.
Why it won’t happen: Either loyalty or C.J. Wilson. Buehrle has been with Chicago since they drafted him in ‘98 and may prefer a return there over a move to the Bronx. An offer probably won’t come if New York pounces on C.J. Wilson though.
4. Sign Yu Darvish. Whether or not Darvish even becomes available at this point is questionable, but teams are intrigued with the durable 6'5” right-hander. Should the Nippon Ham Fighters decide to cash in on him, it will go to the highest bidder, of course.
Why it won’t happen: Kei Igawa, Hideki Irabu, Dice-K, etc. The list of Japanese starters that have been successful in the majors is pretty small and none of them wore pinstripes.
5. Deal Jesus Montero for a starter. As much as any Yankee fan would hate to see it, dealing their top young hitter is a real possibility. Teams like Philadelphia and San Francisco have a surplus of starting pitching and a need for offense, while the Yankees may have to move A-Rod there in the next year or two.
Why it won’t happen: A smarter front office/Javier Vazquez. The Yankees would have to be bowled over to deal Montero, but may not like the idea of having a 22-year-old designated hitter next season. The last time they dealt a comparable young hitter (Nick Johnson) they had Vazquez' 4.91 ERA the next season to show for it.
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