In a recent turn of events, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has proposed a state visit to South Korea, signaling a new chapter in strategic relations between the two nations. This gesture is seen as part of a larger initiative to foster peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Experts are of the view that Mr. Xi’s overture comes as a countermeasure to the burgeoning alliance between North Korea and Russia—an alliance that could disrupt China’s longstanding influence over the region.
South Korea remains the sole power capable of militarily countering North Korea, making it a significant variable in China’s calculations. Moreover, Mr. Xi aims to dismantle the existing trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, particularly in light of South Korea’s current administration led by President Yoon Suk Yeol, which has adopted an anti-communist stance.
Concerns in Beijing
While South Korea has traditionally been economically tethered to China, the relationship has shown signs of strain since President Yoon Suk Yeol took office. Unlike his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who maintained a China-friendly policy, Yoon has upheld South Korea’s established diplomatic norms, raising concerns in Beijing.
Statistics from the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) reveal a notable shift: South Korea’s reliance on the Chinese export market dipped from 26.8 percent in 2018 to 19.5 percent in the first quarter of 2023.
This decline corresponds with South Korea’s efforts to align more closely with U.S. policies, which have involved restricting high-end semiconductor exports to China. As a result, exports to China plummeted by 29.8 percent in the first quarter of this year.
South Korea has also been proactively diversifying its export markets. In 2021, exports to countries like the United States, India, Australia, and Vietnam surged, boasting Market Comparative Advantage (MCA) indices between 6 and 7—significantly higher than China’s 4.
Independent analyst Zhuge Mingyang posits that South Korea’s declining economic reliance on China could have far-reaching geopolitical consequences. By diversifying its economic portfolio, South Korea risks loosening China’s grip, not only economically but also in terms of strategic influence over the Korean Peninsula.
US-Korea-Japan Alignment Intensifies Over THAAD
The installation of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system in South Korea by the United States has long been a point of contention for China. Under the previous administration of President Moon Jae-in, Beijing successfully exerted pressure to limit further deployments. However, the current South Korean administration under Mr. Yoon has deviated significantly from this stance, opting for a closer alliance with the United States and Japan.In April 2017, South Korea green-lighted the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system, drawing swift and punitive actions from China, including economic boycotts and cultural bans. Beijing argued the system was a threat to its national security. In November 2017, to ease tensions, Moon Jae-in’s administration committed to a “three no’s” policy: no additional THAAD deployments, no participation in the U.S. missile defense network, and no trilateral military alliance with the United States and Japan. Despite this, China continued its economic and cultural reprisals against South Korea.
Policy Reversal Under Yoon
Upon taking office, Mr. Yoon broke from his predecessor’s accommodating approach, strengthening military ties with the United States and extending an olive branch to Japan. Mr. Yoon’s administration was forthright in its communication with Beijing; South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin clarified during an August 2022 visit to China that the “three no’s” policy was not binding.At the Camp David Summit on Aug. 18, the United States, Japan, and South Korea inked the “Camp David Principles,” aiming to elevate collaboration in the arenas of security, economy, and technology. Mr. Yoon affirmed South Korea’s commitment to upholding the international order and promoting security, adding that the summit’s purpose aligned with containing China’s influence.
Robert Daly, an analyst at the American think tank Wilson Center, noted that the summit marked a significant milestone in mending Japan-South Korea relations. This tripartite accord underscores the failure of China’s attempts to drive a wedge between these nations, rendering Beijing geopolitically isolated.
Kim Jong Un’s Russian Rendezvous
In a surprising turn of events, North Korea, long considered a close ally of China, is making diplomatic moves that have unsettled Beijing. Traditionally a relationship rooted in mutual dependency, the friendship between China and North Korea now seems increasingly fragile.
Although specifics were not revealed, it’s widely speculated that Russia and North Korea may have entered agreements related to military technology and weaponry. Mr. Putin hinted during a post-meeting press conference that Russia would assist North Korea in satellite manufacturing, signaling Mr. Kim’s ambitions to expand into the aerospace sector.
In a Politburo meeting held on Sept. 20, Mr. Kim directed his country to take proactive steps in various sectors to elevate North Korean-Russian relations to unprecedented levels. Mr. Kim called for increased inter-departmental cooperation between the two nations and advocated for expanding multi-sectoral collaboration.
Xi Grapples with Mounting Domestic Pressures
As China faces escalating crises both at home and abroad, Mr. Xi finds himself in a tightening vice of challenges. Analysts suggest that his recent attempts to mend relations with South Korea may be a desperate bid to claw back some semblance of stability and success.
“Although Xi Jinping wields considerable power, he faces almost universal opposition within the Communist Party itself. Imagine the immense pressure he must be under to maintain his grip on authority,” posits independent analyst Zhuge Mingyang.
Mr. Xi’s struggles are compounded by recent setbacks in foreign policy. Rahm Emanuel, U.S. Ambassador to Japan, has openly criticized Mr. Xi as “incompetent” in economics and a “foreign-policy failure.” Both President Joe Biden and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have also labeled Mr. Xi a “dictator.”
China’s economy teeters on the edge of collapse, with crises unfolding in the real estate sector, escalating local government debts, and ominous signs of financial instability even in directly-administered cities like Tianjin. Mr. Xi has responded with a heavy-handed approach, purging the military and his immediate circle, leading Mr. Emanuel to quip that none of the officials around Mr. Xi are likely to “survive.”
Political commentator Li Yiming believes that “if Xi could mend fences with South Korea, it would mark a significant diplomatic win, somewhat rehabilitating his increasingly tarnished reputation and easing internal pressures. Nevertheless, the eventual downfall of the Communist Party seems an unavoidable fate.”
As early as February of this year, financier George Soros warned that despite Mr. Xi’s current stranglehold over all instruments of suppression, his long-term survival is far from guaranteed and that his dreams of political and military dominance are destined to remain unfulfilled, and the Communist Party will have to brace for either “regime change or revolution.”
