The spectre of One Nation is looming large over an upcoming election, with support surging for the right-wing populist party at state level.
A Victorian state poll of 1,274 voters, conducted by DemosAU/PremierNational from Feb. 1 to 10, put One Nation’s primary vote at 21 percent.
The result isn’t quite as strong as the 26 percent watermark indicated in recent national polling.
But it represents a 20.7 percent swing from the 2022 Victorian election across a state that ex-Prime Minister John Howard once described as the “Massachusetts of Australia” for its left-leaning tendencies.
Labor’s primary vote has crumbled to 23 percent, while the coalition fared only mildly better at 29 percent after the Liberals switched state leaders from Brad Battin to Jess Wilson in November.
While the coalition holds a 53 percent to 47 percent two-party-preferred lead, its primary vote has slumped eight points since the last DemosAU poll in October.
If the results were replicated at the election, DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said a change of government would be likely.
“In Victoria, we see a government on the nose and a struggling Liberal party brand federally, resulting in many voters sending their vote to One Nation,” he said.
“Whether this is a permanent shift or voters are merely parking their vote remains to be seen.”
In 2022, dairy farmer turned upper house MP Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell became One Nation’s first-ever representative elected to Victorian parliament.
The former fringe party is recruiting to field candidates in all 88 lower house seats and eight upper house regions at the state election on Nov. 28.
Hasanakos flagged a “wildcard” possibility of One Nation holding the balance of power in the lower house.
“With 20 percent of the vote, we can expect to see One Nation winning seats, especially as their vote is concentrated in regional areas, where they are outpolling both major parties,” he said.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson dismissed the significance of the poll and wouldn’t be drawn on the coalition leaking votes to One Nation.
“Polls, you know, they come and go,” she told reporters on Sunday.
“Victorians understand this state is headed in the wrong direction ... they want change and I’m excited to offer them that over the next 10 months.”
Wilson’s former deputy Sam Groth tendered his resignation from parliament on Friday, setting up a by-election in his seat of Nepean on Melbourne’s Mornington Peninsula.
Nominations for Liberal preselection remain open and Labor is yet to decide if it will field a candidate.
Even if the Liberals retain Nepean, the Victorian coalition will need to net at least another 16 seats in November to form majority government and end Labor’s reign after 12 years.
