Who’s Who of Indonesia’s Election and What It Means for Australia-Beijing Ties

Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto speaks to the media after polls closed in Jakarta, Indonesia on April 17, 2019. (Willy Kurniawan/Reuters)

Analysis

Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy and largest Muslim-majority country, will head to the polls Feb. 14 for its presidential elections with three main candidates jostling for the top job.

This election is of both regional and global significance as the country, which is on track to become the sixth largest economy before the end of the decade, is strategically placed near global trade routes.

It is in the interest of most countries to have a government in power that will help maintain freedom of navigation in the region, particularly as Beijing increasingly contests this principle of law in the South China Sea.

The main candidates in this election are Ganjar Pranowo, who heads the alliance led by the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P); Anies Baswedan and his Coalition of Change for Unity; and Prabowo Subianto who leads the Advanced Indonesia Coalition.

As of Feb. 13, an Economist poll showed Mr. Subianto leading with support of around 53 percent, followed by Mr. Baswedan polling at 20 percent, and Mr. Pranowo at 19 percent.

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There are several issues facing the candidates in the upcoming election, and these include addressing the rising cost of living, tackling high youth unemployment rates, job creation, combating security challenges including challenges from Beijing over control of the South China Sea, corruption, and improving welfare and employment opportunities.

We take a look at each candidate, and what impact their victory might have on Indonesia’s relationship with both Australia and Beijing.

Prabowo Subianto

Prabowo Subianto leads the Gerindra Party or the “Great Indonesia Movement Party,” and currently leads in the opinion polls. A former special operations soldier and army general with a somewhat chequered past, this is his fourth presidential election.

He is considered by some as a right-wing nationalist, and he runs on a platform named “Asta Cita,” which aims to transform Indonesia into a prosperous and globally respected nation by 2045—the centennial of its independence.

His other key platforms include a free food program to address hunger and malnutrition among the nation’s poor children.

He has also pledged to follow current President Joko Widodo’s economic policies of infrastructure development, making the country investment-friendly, and promoting self-sufficiency through domestic manufacturing.

Implications of a Subianto presidency for Australia may include a strengthening of Australia-Indonesia security cooperation, particularly given his positive views of the trilateral AUKUS deal.

However, current President Widodo of the PDI-P significantly increased communist-controlled China’s foreign investment during his tenure, a situation likely to continue under a Subianto presidency, which would mean Beijing would continue to assert a level of influence on Indonesia.

As a result, a Subianto presidency would mean he would have to balance relations with major powers, including fostering closer ties with the West and maintaining beneficial relations with both Washington and Beijing. While he is critical of Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea, he seeks to maximise Indonesia’s benefits from both the United States and China while avoiding entanglement in Sino-American rivalry.

Anies Baswedan

Anies Baswedan is an Indonesian academic, activist, and politician who served as the governor of Jakarta from 2017 to 2022.

Mr. Baswedan’s policy platforms focus on promoting economic equality under the “One Prosperity” slogan, aiming for a fair and prosperous Indonesia by addressing economic disparities in the country. His pro-development agenda has promised to provide all Indonesians with access to quality and affordable public services, education, health, and more economic opportunities.

A Baswedan presidency and its impact on Australia-Indonesia relations could pave the way for closer cooperation on climate change, regional stability, defence, security, and business engagement.

If Mr. Baswedan’s time as governor of Jakarta is anything to go by, it indicates he is pro-West. If he was elected president, Mr. Baswedan’s emphasis on Western markets could lead to a downsizing of Beijing’s political influence in Indonesia and this would bode well for Australia.

Mr. Baswedan has spent a lot of time fostering strong connections with the West and building relationships. He favours the West over communist China as he sees it as much larger in terms of total market size.

Ganjar Pranowo

Ganjar Pranowo is the former governor of Central Java and current minister for defence in the Widodo government.

He is a presidential candidate representing the ruling PDI-P and is the youngest candidate at 54 years old—resonating with the country’s youth due to his social media presence.

If he wins the election, Mr. Pranowo’s plan includes attempting to generate 17 million jobs, enhancing agricultural output, and fostering growth in downstream sectors such as mining, agriculture, and fisheries.

Additionally, he intends to offer legal assurance for foreign investors, and implement tax reforms, aiming to significantly increase the government’s budget for spending.

A Pranowo presidency could have mixed implications for Australia due to his pro-Beijing stance.

He has close ties with Beijing, with the PDI-P party maintaining strong ties with the Chinese Communist Party.

His time as governor of Central Java saw him discussing investment cooperation in Central Java with representatives from Beijing, and he has indicated that he wants to continue to cooperate with Beijing in the tourism, infrastructure, and agricultural sectors.

An election victory would likely see Indonesia-Beijing ties strengthen both economically and politically. Given Mr. Pranowo’s track record and the PDI-P’s ties with the CCP, it’s anticipated that under his leadership, Indonesia’s foreign policy might see the country become even more intertwined with Beijing.