What’s Next for the Conservatives Now That Poilievre Is Back in Parliament?

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks to the press on Aug. 7, 2025. The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh

News Analysis

With their leader back in Parliament, the Conservatives are better positioned to challenge the governing Liberals, drawing on Pierre Poilievre’s parliamentary experience and increased media attention, although the Liberals’ post-election honeymoon still presents the Tories with added challenges.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal government have enjoyed a high level of support post-election as trade tensions with the United States continue.

In addition, the Carney Liberals say they have a focus on major nation-building projects, and have passed legislation to remove federal barriers to internal trade, all items that the Conservatives had been championing while also asking for the repeal of legislation such as the Impact Assessment Act to boost the energy sector.

But the Tories may find their chance to climb up the polls when it comes to issues such as increasing affordability or boosting economic growth, analysts say.

Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, said the Liberal Party is experiencing a “honeymoon phase” because the Conservatives and NDP are both without official leaders.

“The Liberals have to be careful, because the reality is that when there’s no real effective opposition, it’s easy to think that you’re brilliant,” Nanos told The Epoch Times in an interview.

Nelson Wiseman, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, says that an economic downturn and higher inflation could “really hurt the Liberals and benefit the Conservatives.”

Additionally, if the NDP were to elect a new leader who enjoys high popularity, that could take support away from the Liberal Party and assist the Conservatives, Wiseman noted.

Peter Graefe, associate professor of political science at McMaster University, said it is “fairly natural” for a government to enjoy a honeymoon period following an election, which he said is “probably helped by the fact that I don’t think the Conservatives have been particularly well-organized in developing an opposition to what Carney is doing.”

While the Tories had focused on messages such as “axe the tax” and criticism of former Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for most of 2024, their campaign became blunted when Trudeau stepped down and Carney removed the consumer portion of the tax when he became leader. Meanwhile, U.S. trade tensions shifted the political environment in the Liberals’ favour, with the challenge being compounded for the Tories as many NDP supporters cast their votes for the Carney Liberals.

Post-Election Messaging

Since the April 28 election loss, the Conservatives have been putting more emphasis on issues related to energy, including asking for the removal of the oil tanker ban on the West Coast, scrapping the Impact Assessment Act, which the government of Alberta calls the “no-more pipelines act,” and abandoning the electric vehicle mandates.

The Conservatives have also ramped up pressure on the federal government on the issue of immigration, saying the Liberals have increased intake levels relentlessly beyond what the country can capably absorb.

There appears to be more reluctance on the part of Conservatives to get involved in cultural issues compared to the past. In one case, more than two weeks passed before the Tories criticized the federal government for Parks Canada’s cancellation of a U.S. Christian musician’s permit to hold a concert on federal grounds. However, Poilievre still commented in support of Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson after his daughter said he'd been diagnosed with chronic inflammatory response syndrome. The Tory leader said on social media that he is praying “for a swift recovery for my friend,” though he had been covered in a negative light by several media for his interview with Peterson ahead of this year’s election.

In his victory speech after winning the Battle River-Crowfoot federal byelection in Alberta on Aug. 18, Poilievre outlined that his party’s focus going forward will be on issues related to fighting crime and cost-of-living issues such as housing and inflation, as well as reducing government expenditure and debt. He also hinted that the issue of immigration and overturning the government’s electric vehicle mandate will be major areas of focus.

He added that once Parliament returns in fall, his party will propose a “Canadian Sovereignty act” meant to enable building pipelines and other resource development projects, as well as removing the industrial carbon tax and allowing for more oil and gas production.

Carney has noted the Liberals’ recent reduction of immigration targets, and has said the country will need to cap immigration for a few years to build more capacity before allowing more people in. He has also said that his newly passed Building Canada Act will allow for the bypassing of laws that stand in the way of high-priority major projects, and that his government has passed legislation to remove federal barriers to internal trade to boost the domestic economy.

Poll Reversal

The Conservative Party was favoured to win a majority government throughout most of 2024, but talk by U.S. President Donald Trump of making Canada the 51st state, coupled with the resignation of Prime Minister Justin and election of Carney, kicked off a Liberal resurgence.

The Liberal Party managed to achieve another minority government with 169 seats in the April 28 election, while the Conservatives increased their seat count to 144. However, Poilievre lost his Carleton seat, which he had held for over two decades, delivering a setback to the party.

Wiseman said with Poilievre having recently won the federal byelection in Alberta, he will need to focus on “re-establishing his identity and presence,” which may include modifying his style and messaging, noting his “attack dog persona” is unpopular in polling with women and older Canadians.

Poilievre’s popularity in 2024 rose in part due to his focus on issues such as inflation, housing prices, and the federal carbon tax increasing the cost of fuel and food, while he also managed to pull a lot of support from younger Canadians, as well as the working class. Amid declining per-capita GDP growth, as well as the further uncertainty created by U.S. trade tensions, a looming economic turmoil could benefit the Conservatives’ chances, notes Wiseman. However, he said since it is unlikely there will be a federal election anytime soon, the Liberals could see their popularity decline and then bounce back.

“Although technically it’s a minority government, it’s actually—in my opinion—a majority. There’s no way the opposition parties want an election,” he said. Current projections by the polling aggregator 338Canada show the Liberals would be in majority territory if an election was held today.

Wiseman said even if an economic downturn were to help the Conservatives’ polling numbers, the other opposition parties will not vote to bring down the Liberal government if they believe they have “anything to lose.”

Wiseman said he has observed that the “low point” of a governing party typically comes two years into its term, meaning the Liberals could see their popularity decline around 2027, assuming an election is not called before then.

A Potential Resurgence

According to Nanos Research polling from Aug. 5, the Liberals currently have the support of 44 percent of Canadians, compared to 32 percent for the Conservatives and 12 percent for the NDP. Just before the April 28 election, the Liberals were at 43 percent compared to 40 percent for the Conservatives, and 8 percent for the NDP.

When modelled out, the latest Nanos polling numbers would give the Liberals a majority of 224 seats, while the Conservatives would be down to 79 seats. 338Canada projects the Liberals would currently win 191 seats, while the Conservatives would win 117.

The Liberal Party’s high approval ratings could be helped by the “rally around the flag” effect, where periods of crises or emergency situations lead to the ruling party seeing a boost in support. This was seen in Canada at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and Trump’s tariffs have resulted in renewed patriotism that could be leading to the same occurrence.

Nanos said he attributes the Tories’ fallen polling numbers to Poilievre “not being as much of a focus” as he was during the election campaign. He said with Poilievre’s recent focus on campaigning in Battle River-Crowfoot, the Liberals have been given more of a “free ride” than when Trudeau was prime minister.

Nanos said if the NDP were to “turn things around,” this could help the Conservatives by siphoning support away from the Liberals. The NDP won just seven seats in the last election, losing official party status in the House of Commons, while also seeing leader Jagmeet Singh lose his own seat and resign on election night. Polling from the lead-up to the election showed that the Liberals owed much of their recent victory to NDP voters fleeing to the Liberal Party.

Nanos said with Carney shifting the Liberal Party’s ideological alignment more toward the centre, he has opened up an “opportunity” for the NDP to steal back Liberal voters.

“In a twisted type of way, Pierre Poilievre needs an exciting NDP-Liberal race that is very competitive, that throws up someone that captures the imagination of progressive voters,” he said.

Graefe said Carney has done well in the polls because the Liberals took voters away from the NDP, Green Party, and Bloc Québécois when Carney became prime minister. But he said with Carney moving toward the centre on some political issues, such as doing away with the consumer portion of the federal carbon tax, increasing military spending, and cutting government “inefficiencies,” those voters may return to the opposition parties.