What to Expect in European Parliamentary Elections

Pollsters predicted that right-wing groups and parties will gain seats in the European Parliament while centrist and center-left groups will lose seats.

Euro-deputies take part in a vote on the revision of the EU emissions trading system at the European Union Parliament in Brussels on June 22, 2022. John Thys/AFP via Getty Images

The European Union is holding elections June 6 to June 9, in which citizens of each of the 27 member nations will elect their representatives to the European Parliament for a five-year term.

The European Parliament is the main legislative body of the EU and one of its seven institutions.

The main role of the European Parliament is to pass EU laws, together with the Council of the European Union, based on proposals made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm.

The EU’s parliament is made up of members representing all EU member states and is directly elected by the citizens of all EU countries.

The Council of the EU is composed of the national ministers from each government of the bloc’s 27 nations, and its main role is to adopt laws and coordinate policies. The ministers meet in 10 different configurations depending on the policy being discussed.

Predictions

There are seven political groups in the current European Parliament. None of them holds the absolute majority.

Currently, the two largest groups, the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), hold 177 and 140 seats respectively, according to a Congressional Research Service report.

The third largest political group in the EU Parliament is the centrist Renew Europe group, which has 102 seats.

The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) parties hold 68 and 58 seats, respectively, while two left-wing groups, the Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA) and The Left (GUE/NGL) hold 72 and 37 seats, respectively.

Europe Elects, a nonpartisan poll aggregator, predicted that the EPP and two right-wing groups will gain 19 seats in total, while the center, center-left groups, and the Greens political group will lose 35 seats in total. A total of 720 seats are up for grabs.

The number of seats held by The Left group is predicted to remain unchanged, but independents not affiliated with any political group will gain 30 seats, according to Europe Elects.

The European Council on Foreign Relations predicted in January—based on opinion polls in every EU member state and a statistical model—that the three largest groups in the Parliament, the EPP, the center-left socialists and democrats group (S&D), and the centrist Renew Europe group, will likely lose seats but the EPP will remain the largest group in the parliament.

The European Council on Foreign Relations predicts the biggest winner will be right wing groups ECR and ID, which the council estimates will together gain 58 more seats.

The think tank also forecasts that the Hungarian conservative party Fidesz, whose EU parliament members are currently unaffiliated, is expected to win 14 seats. If Fidesz members elected in June decide to join the ECR group, then both right-wing groups—the ECR and ID—will have more seats combined than the EPP, the largest group, or S&D, the second largest group, the think tank said.

Chairman of the center-right European People Party group (EPP) Manfred Weber addresses a joint press conference during the EPP Groups Bureau meeting (European People's Party) in Berlin, on Sept. 9, 2021. Stefanie Loos/AFP via Getty Images

Eurobarometer, an EU pollster, said that Europeans are more interested in this parliamentary election than during the prior election in 2019 and even in autumn 2023.

In the poll, conducted in the spring, 60 percent of respondents said they would be interested in the 2024 European elections and 71 percent would likely vote if the election were to be held within a week, according to Eurobarometer.

The European elections are the largest transnational elections in the world.

Election days range from Thursday to Sunday and it is up to each country to decide when and how they organize the vote, but some common rules apply in all EU countries.

Political Spectrum

The current EU Parliament elected in 2019 is made up of 705 members, but the current parliament being elected will have 720 seats due to demographic changes in the EU countries.

The EU Parliament will expand from 705 members elected in 2019 to 720 members this election due to demographic changes in the EU.

“Following the elections, France, Spain, and The Netherlands will each get two additional seats, while Austria, Denmark, Belgium, Poland, Finland, Slovakia, Ireland, Slovenia, and Latvia are attributed one extra seat each,” the EU Parliament said in a statement.

The Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are organized by their political affiliation, not by nationality, according to the parliament website.

The EU requires that at least 23 MEPs representing at least one-quarter of the EU nations must come together to form a political group. There are also independent MEPs who have not joined any group.

MEPs who belong to a political group cannot be forced to vote in a particular way, the Parliament stated.

EU Presidency

The president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, will be selected from lead candidates put forward by each of the seven political groups of the European Parliament.

After the elections, all 27 EU member countries nominate a candidate whose European political party wins the most seats in the election. The Parliament must then approve the nominee by an absolute majority. If the nominee does not get enough votes, the countries must put forward another candidate.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech to the press at the French representation of the European Commission in Paris on May 6, 2024. Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images

The ECR and ID parties have decided against nominating their lead candidates for the presidency of the Commission.

The ECR said in a statement that it was never in favor of the lead candidate system and that the system “was never fit.”

The incumbent President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is affiliated with the EPP, which holds the largest number of seats in the parliament. She has also been nominated by the EPP as a lead candidate for a second term, but her candidacy will only be considered if the EPP wins the most seats again.