US Peace Efforts in DRC Could Usurp Chinese Regime’s Grip in Region: Analysts

Closer ties could also mean a rare earth windfall for the United States.
US Peace Efforts in DRC Could Usurp Chinese Regime’s Grip in Region: Analysts
Artisanal miners collect gravel from the Lukushi River, searching for cassiterite in Manono, the Democratic Republic of Congo on Feb.17, 2022. Junior Kannah/AFP via Getty Images
Darren Taylor
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The United States has taken a major step toward breaking Beijing’s stranglehold on critical minerals by helping broker a cease-fire in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Eastern DRC has some of the world’s largest deposits of such minerals, including cobalt, copper, and lithium. These materials have become essential to modern life and future energy security, manufacturing, and defense.

The United States is pushing the DRC and Rwanda to sign peace accords, along with bilateral minerals agreements in Washington, within two months.

The accords could bring billions of dollars in Western investment to the region, according to Massad Boulos, President Donald Trump’s senior Africa adviser.

Boulos added that the DRC and Rwanda will finalize bilateral economic agreements with Washington to support mining and mineral processing.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet the foreign ministers of both countries in mid-May to finalize the peace deal.

However, Boulos made it clear that before the White House signing ceremony can go ahead, Washington expects Rwanda to pull its troops out of the DRC and end its support for the M23 rebels, while the DRC must address Rwanda’s security concerns with militias.

More than 6 million people have been killed in violence in the DRC since 1998, according to Amnesty International.

The latest fighting has pitted rebels from the M23 group, backed by Rwanda, against DRC troops operating under President Felix Tshisekedi’s government in Kinshasa and U.N.-sanctioned forces from several southern African countries.

The U.S. Treasury has imposed sanctions on James Kabarebe, Rwandan minister of state for regional integration, and several individuals and entities linked to the Congo River Alliance, which includes the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group.

The sanctions extend to Kabarebe, M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka Kingston, and two of Kanyuka’s companies.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s administration in Kigali has justified the presence of its troops in eastern DRC by accusing Kinshasa of supporting militias that allegedly participated in the 1994 Rwandan genocide, during which extremists from the Hutu ethnic group killed between 800,000 and 1 million Tutsis.

Critical Minerals

Jean-Pierre Okenda, director of DRC-based nonprofit Sentinel Natural Resources, told The Epoch Times that M23 rebels have seized mines across eastern DRC and are using profits from the sale of critical minerals and metals—mainly coltan, gold, tantalum, tin, and tungsten—to buy weapons and ammunition.
U.N. experts said in a 2024 report that critical minerals mined illicitly in the region are being smuggled to Rwanda, which Kagame denies.
A miner holds a cobalt stone at the Shabara artisanal mine near Kolwezi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on Oct.12, 2022. (Junior Kannah/AFP via Getty Images)
A miner holds a cobalt stone at the Shabara artisanal mine near Kolwezi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on Oct.12, 2022. Junior Kannah/AFP via Getty Images

Another indication of continued American interest in the DRC, said Mike Smith, global trade specialist at the International Trade Institute of Southern Africa, is the Trump administration’s support for a scheme initiated by former President Joe Biden.

The Lobito Corridor Project, partly funded with $553 million from the U.S. International Development Finance Corp., will result in an 800-mile railway connecting eastern DRC to the port city of Lobito in Angola.

The United States will also construct a new harbor at Lobito from which minerals and metals will be shipped across the Atlantic.

The U.S. International Development Finance Corp. said the investment will ensure China doesn’t have a monopoly on access to critical minerals and transport routes in the region.

But first, there must be peace. “Without peace this mission is dead in the water,” said Abraham Miniko, a senior researcher and policy analyst in peace, security, and conflict resolution at Istanbul University in Turkey.

He told The Epoch Times that war in the DRC “has been very kind to China for almost 40 years,” allowing the Chinese regime to control the region’s extractive industry.

Companies linked to Beijing own or operate 80 percent of critical mineral production in the DRC, according to several studies, including one published by the U.S. Army War College in October 2024.

While war in eastern DRC drove American mining firms out of the region, the conflict had the “opposite effect” on their Chinese competitors, said Umesh Bawa, foreign policy analyst at the University of the Western Cape in South Africa.

“The instability brought to DRC was very good for China. It took advantage of the chaos by being the only player willing to operate in the area. Unlike others, it had no qualms sending its people into danger, and it didn’t pull out even when Chinese mining employees were killed in attacks,” he told The Epoch Times.

In July 2024, a militia attack on a gold mine in northeastern Congo killed six Chinese miners and two Congolese soldiers.

China has actively prolonged the violence by providing weapons, including drones, to the DRC.

Smith told The Epoch Times that China’s “low” environmental and human rights standards and “paltry” labor costs had allowed it to control global supplies of critical minerals.

China has a near monopoly on the extraction of rare earths as well as on refining them, according to the International Energy Agency. It estimates that China produces more than 60 percent of critical minerals and processes 92 percent of worldwide output.

Countering China

“If the United States has a gateway into DRC, it has taken a huge step toward minimizing China’s power [in minerals markets],” Smith said.
Should there be peace in DRC, he said, it’s likely U.S. mining companies will return to begin fulfilling Trump’s pledge to build stocks of the materials he considers essential to the United States’ economic progress and national security, without relying on China.
Trump and many research organizations, including the East Asia Forum, have accused Beijing of weaponizing its dominance in trade in critical minerals.
Luhihi gold mine in the foreground and Lake Kivu in the background in South Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on May 13, 2023. (Alexis Huguet/AFP via Getty Images)
Luhihi gold mine in the foreground and Lake Kivu in the background in South Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on May 13, 2023. Alexis Huguet/AFP via Getty Images
According to a report by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, Beijing has started to ban exports of some minerals, leading to shortages in the United States and elsewhere and raising concerns that China’s competitors will run out of the resources they need to keep vital industries going.

“China is restricting exports of seven minerals in particular,” said David van Wyk, an independent mining and minerals consultant working in Africa.

He said these include terbium, dysprosium, holmium, and erbium—elements used in powerful magnets, lasers, fiber optics, and electric vehicles.

“These minerals are known as ‘heavy rare earths’ because they’re very difficult to refine. They are used a lot by the military and defense sectors, to make the heavy magnets needed for certain equipment in tanks and fighter jets and other military equipment,” van Wyk told The Epoch Times.

“The rest of the world hasn’t developed capacity to process these elements and so relies on China. That leaves the U.S. ... in a very vulnerable position.”

The Trump administration will also have to keep Rwanda happy, Miniko said.

“The war has brought Rwanda a lot of income through the sale of minerals, and if peace comes to eastern DRC and Rwanda loses all this money, it obviously won’t be happy. If Kagame is not appeased in some significant way, bad feeling will simmer and eventually things will explode again,” he said. “Rwanda will have to be included in a deal that benefits it economically, not just politically.”

Smith stated that Washington is “obviously confident” that its peace efforts will be successful, or else the “big guns” wouldn’t be about to invest in the region.

As the diplomacy plays out, KoBold Metals, backed by two of the world’s richest people, billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is looking to acquire part of the Manono lithium project in the DRC.

According to the International Trade Association, in 2022, the DRC was the world’s largest cobalt miner, producing nearly 68 percent of the world’s cobalt.

Some of the country’s copper mines contain significantly higher grades of metal than the global average.

With analysis of the DRC’s mining registry data showing that just 11 percent of the country is covered by mining activity, the material potential is evident.

“The Congolese people themselves don’t benefit from the riches that they walk over every day of their lives,” Okenda said.

Okenda said that should the United States reenter the DRC’s extractive sector, it should be careful not to make the same mistakes that China has made.

“American presence in eastern DRC must benefit the Congolese people. Otherwise, America’s stay in the region is going to be short, because anti-American rebel groups will emerge and a new cycle of conflict will begin,” he said.