The latest 338 Canada polling model has the Tories with 194 (+75), Liberals at 90 (-70), the Bloc at 32, the NDP at 20 (-5), and the Green Party at 2 seats.
If a federal election were held today, the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre would lead by an average of 100 seats over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, according to the
results of a mid-October projection poll by 338Canada.
The Tories are “well into majority territory,” while the Liberals are in a “free fall,” poll analyst and editor-in-chief of 338Canada Philippe Fournier
said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Oct. 15.
In a separate
post on the same day, Mr. Fournier said the projection, which uses aggregate data from a number of polls, is “a brutal one for the Liberals” and the “worst one” since he began to track voter intentions in 2017.
“New
federal polling last week brought more grim news for the governing Liberals, as support for the red team has not recovered from its late-summer slump, which should now no longer be called a slump,” said the analyst in an Oct. 15
news release.
The latest 338 Canada polling
model has the Tories with 194 (+75), Liberals at 90 (-70), the Bloc at 32, the NDP at 20 (-5), and the Green Party at 2 seats, when compared to the results of the 2021 federal election.
Figures released this month by Nanos Research, Abacus Data, and Mainstreet Research show the Conservatives ahead by double-digits in polls across Canada, and leading where Liberal support had held strong until recently, namely in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, Mr. Fournier said in the news release, also noting that the needle is even moving “ever so slightly” in Quebec.
If an election were to occur today, according to
338Canada, the Tories would take 39 percent of the vote, up 4 percent, while the Liberals would receive 28 percent of the vote, and the NDP would receive 18 percent.
The Mainstreet Research
poll released on Oct. 13, with a sample size of 1,223 adults living in Canada, 18 years or older, has the Conservatives with 38 percent of the vote to the Liberals at 25 percent, a
13 percent lead. The NDP has 15 percent, while the Green Party has 3 percent, the Bloc Quebecois 5 percent, and the People’s Party of Canada holding 3 percent.
In a Mainstreet poll in
July with a sample size of 1,201 adults, the Tories only had 32 percent of respondents intending to vote for the party, compared to 26 percent intending to vote for the Liberals and 12 percent undecided on how they would vote.
The October Mainstreet poll showed that, among leaning voters with undecided totals, 40 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for the Tories, while 26 percent would vote Liberal and 17 percent would vote NDP.
Among decided voters and leaning voters, if a vote were held today, 41 percent of those responding to Mainstreet’s poll say they would vote Tory blue, while 27 percent would vote Liberal red, and 17 percent would vote NDP orange.
In its October poll, Mainstreet also asked how people felt about Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, the current prime minister. The majority, 62 percent, had either a very unfavourable opinion (42 percent) or a somewhat unfavourable (20 percent) opinion of Mr. Trudeau. Among the remaining respondents, 21 percent viewed Mr. Trudeau as “somewhat favourable,” 14 percent described their view of him as “very favourable,” and 3 percent said they didn’t know.
Abacus Data, in the latest national poll results published on Oct. 12, of 1,985 adult voters, has the Conservatives sitting at 39 percent of vote intentions, the Liberals at 26 percent, and the NDP at 18 percent.
Nanos Research, in a poll published Oct. 3, based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers 18 years of older, has the Conservatives pulling 38 percent of the vote, the Liberals 27 percent, and the NDP 21 percent.
