Theft Drives Biggest Jump in Victoria Crime Rate in 20 Years

Victoria’s crime rate has jumped faster than anywhere else in Australia, far outpacing other states.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan during a tour of the West Gate Tunnel construction at Footscray, in Melbourne, Australia, on July 7, 2025. AAP Image/Con Chronis

Victoria’s crime rate has jumped sharply in the past year, with new data showing the state recording its highest number of offences since records began in 2004-05.

Figures released by the Crime Statistics Agency (CSA) reveal offences rising 15.7 percent to 638,640, equating to 13.8 percent to nearly 9,000 offences per 100,000 people.

The surge was driven by property and deception offences, which rose 21.2 percent to 378,050. Theft accounted for more than half of that rise, with more than 54,000 additional cases, including a spike of 24,409 motor vehicle thefts to reach 86,351.

Victoria Police Deputy Commissioner Bob Hill said the figures were unacceptable.

“As a society, we simply cannot allow the level of crime we are seeing to become normalised and accepted. Every Victorian deserves to feel safe in their home, within the community, and on the roads,” he said.

Bail Applications on the Rise

For the first time, the CSA included bail statistics, showing applications to the Magistrates’ Court increased 18.4 percent, largely driven by more refusals and revocations.

Youth Justice also reported unsentenced receptions rising 35 percent, although still below the 2020 peak.

CSA Chief Statistician Fiona Dowsley said the new figures would provide critical insight into the justice system.

“This initial set of bail statistics … is a first step to helping us better understand the impacts of bail or remand decisions on an alleged offender’s pathway through the criminal justice system,” she said.

Criminal incidents spiked 18.3 percent to 483,583, while alleged offender incidents rose 19.3 percent to 196,456, including a 41.8 percent increase in shoplifting. Family violence incidents also climbed 7.7 percent to 106,427.

Opposition Blames Allan Government

The Coalition seized on the figures, accusing the Allan government of weakening frontline policing by cutting $50 million from the police budget and leaving nearly 2,000 jobs unfilled.

Opposition leader Brad Battin, a former police officer, promised a “Break Bail, Face Jail” policy, tougher sentencing, expanded police powers under “Jack’s Law” to confiscate knives, and more diversion programs to steer young people away from crime.

Premier Jacinta Allan defended her government’s record, pointing to reforms announced in July, including what she described as the nation’s toughest bail laws, a ban on machetes, and new investment in youth justice. She also issued an apology to the victims of crime.

“We’re determined to restore community confidence,” she said.

National Trends Amplify State Pressure

Victoria’s crime wave mirrors a broader national problem. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported nearly 600,000 thefts nationwide in 2024, the highest since 2003.

ABS head of crime and justice statistics Samantha Hall said thefts had been climbing steadily since the pandemic.

“There were 595,660 recorded victims of theft in 2024 … continually rising since a drop during 2020 when COVID-19 restrictions were introduced.”

Victoria recorded the sharpest increase, up 29 percent, followed by Tasmania at 11 percent.