Survey Suggests Muslim Voter Support for Major Parties Plummeting

Only 7 percent of surveyed Muslim voters plan to support Labor in 2025, a steep drop from 57 percent in 2022.

Women listen to a local Imam during National Mosque open day at the Werribee Islamic Centre in the suburb of Hoppers Crossing in Melbourne, Australia, on Oct, 25, 2014. Luis Ascui/Getty Images

A recent survey from grassroots political group, Muslim Votes Matter (MVM), indicates voting patterns in major Muslim communities are shifting away from the two major parties.

Of the 1,170 respondents, only 7 percent plan to vote for Labor, a steep drop from the 57 percent support they received in 2022. Support for the Liberal Party fell from 9 percent to 3 percent.

The shift does align with ongoing dissatisfaction with the major parties, but also with much broader issues around the Albanese government’s response to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Naser Alziyadat, a spokesperson for MVM, warned that Muslim voters were increasingly inclined to back minor parties and independents.

“This shift speaks volumes about the community’s dissatisfaction with the two-party system,” he said in a statement.

A recent IPSOS survey echoes this trend, revealing that 57 percent of Australians feel overlooked by traditional parties, especially young voters.

Another report by the Institute of Public Affairs in July argued that breaking away from the two-party system could enhance democracy, and foster more pluralistic representation.

The success of federal member for Fowler, Dai Le, as an independent in 2022 elections exemplifies this shift.

A former refugee and political outsider, Le won against Labor’s Kristina Keneally, capturing a seat that had historically been Labor-dominated.

Meanwhile, former Labor senator, Fatima Payman, who left to form her own fledgling party, also pointed to voter frustration over issues like cost of living, climate inaction, and housing.

“People are tired of the major parties’ politicking and want leaders who genuinely care about everyday issues,” she said, describing a need for more practical and inclusive policies.

Independents Losing Their Shine?

While independents have traditionally been difficult for the major parties to pry from Parliament, recent election results suggest opportunity may be knocking.

The recent Queensland election saw inner-city voters swing against their incumbent Greens MPs possibly due to support for radical pro-Hamas and Palestine protestors, as well as concerns minor parties cannot deliver substantive change on issues like cost of living and inflation.

In Queensland, and likely in other states, this has spurred Labor and Liberal Party strategists to consider how they can compete with the Greens and “teal” independents.

The centre-right Liberal Party has launched its campaign targeting the “teals” in an attempt to win back affluent Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth seats they lost in 2021.

The campaign has focused on the teal’s voting patterns and how they have largely aligned with the Greens (72 percent of the time) and Labor (61 percent).