Solar Panel Waste Predicted to Hit 1 Million Tonnes by 2030: Australian Research

‘This finding contradicts earlier forecasts, which predicted significant volumes of PV waste would not appear until post-2030.’
Solar Panel Waste Predicted to Hit 1 Million Tonnes by 2030: Australian Research
A worker installs solar panels on the rooftop of a house in Pomona, Calif., on Oct. 19, 2023. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)
4/2/2024
Updated:
4/2/2024
0:00

The volume of solar panel waste is rising rapidly in Australia, predicted to reach 280,000 tonnes within one year and one million tonnes within a decade.

According to a new study by the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics, led by experts from the University of New South Wales (UNSW), the challenge of dealing with significant levels of solar PV waste would come within the next two or three years.

A photovoltaic (PV) cell, also called a solar cell, is a non-mechanical device that converts sunlight into electricity. It is the basic building block of a PV system and typically produces one to two watts of power.

The study showed that the cumulative volume of end-of-life solar panels would reach 280,000 tonnes by 2025, 680,000 tonnes by 2030, and a “significant milestone” of 1 million tonnes between 2034 and 2035.

“This finding contradicts earlier forecasts, which predicted significant volumes of PV waste would not appear until post-2030,” the researchers said.

Researchers also noted that by 2030, more than 80 percent of the discarded solar panels will come from small-scale distributed PV systems, due to the earlier evolution of Australia’s residential PV market.

Meanwhile, on an annual scale, the waste volume in Australia is expected to exceed 50,000 tonnes in one year, and reach 100,000 tonnes from 2030 to 2035.

“This projection is four times higher than earlier predictions because it accounts for the pre-mature decommission of residential solar panel systems,” the study noted.

The solar panel waste is predicted to mainly concentrate in major Australian cities, including Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide.

However, from 2030, the waste volume of PV is expected to accelerate in regional and remote areas as large-scale PV systems reach their mid- or end-of-life cycle.

The Challenge Of Recycling Solar Panel Waste

Like most electronic waste, solar panels are made from potentially reusable materials such as glass, aluminium, and copper. However, due to the amounts of heavy metals it contains, solar panel waste could become hazardous waste and contaminate the environment if left in landfills to degrade.

The UNSW researchers noted that there is a lack of financial incentive to recycle solar panels. For example, it costs about $20 to recycle a typical 20-kilogram solar panel, and about $2 to send a panel to a landfill.

“Recyclers face slim margins due to intricate technology, insufficient material returns to offset costs, especially when operating at a small scale,” the study noted.

Finding markets for recycled solar panel materials is also a challenge, as up to 70 percent of solar panels are made of glass—an extremely low-value material.

“The challenge extends beyond glass, as the highly mixed nature of the components makes it challenging to find markets for their use.”

The researchers also noted the logistical difficulties of transporting separated materials to distant waste management infrastructures.

“This includes utility-scale solar farms in regional and remote areas. Coordinating collection points and recycling facilities to take into account the widespread distribution of panels across the country will be a significant barrier.”

The paper proposed a 12-year industry roadmap to tackle the challenges. This includes building a “national product stewardship scheme” that defines management structures, optimising waste logistics by creating a streamlined network to transport waste efficiently, investing in full-recycling technologies, and establishing large-scale PV waste treatment in major Australian cities.