Second Poll Shows Tories Surpassing Liberals in Popular Support

(L-R) Prime Minister Mark Carney; Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick; Adrian Wyld

Declining approval ratings for Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal government have the Opposition Conservatives leading in popular support in a nationwide poll for the second time in as many weeks.

Carney’s approval rating is down six points to 51 percent, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives top the governing Liberals by 2 percent in voter intentions, according to a newly released survey from Angus Reid. Forty percent of Canadians polled said they would vote Tory compared to 38 percent who would cast a ballot for the Liberals.

It is the second poll in the past two weeks that has given Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives an edge over Carney’s Liberals. An Aug. 24 poll from Abacus Data found that 41 percent would vote Tory and 39 percent would choose Liberal.

The Angus Reid report attributed the dip in Liberal popularity to a lack of progress on securing a trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump and escalating tariffs.

“Summer has come and mostly gone, and no trade deal has materialized between Canada and its largest trading partner – the United States,” the Angus Reid report says. “Amid this, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to drop counter tariffs, as well as high expectations on other major issues like housing affordability and ‘nation building’ have contributed to a drop in his personal approval for the first time since assuming the office, and an electoral outlook that is now deadlocked with the Conservatives.”

Carney’s Approval Ratings

Data from the survey released on Sept. 5 indicated a six-point drop in approval for Carney and a 12-point increase in disapproval when compared to data from June.

Carney’s approval rating dropped from 56 percent to 51 percent while his disapproval numbers rose from 34 percent to 41 percent between Aug. 5 and Sept. 4. Carney’s decline in approval ratings was highest among female voters, falling at least seven points among every age group.

The report says Carney’s dip in popularity reflects disapproval from more Canadians regarding some of his recent decisions.

Thirty-five percent expressed dissatisfaction and 26 percent voiced uncertainty about his decision in August to eliminate the tariffs on American goods that had become emblematic of the “elbows up” approach Carney had promised to take against U.S. President Donald Trump during the federal election campaign.

Carney has characterized the move as a bid to improve relations with the White House, noting that Canada enjoys tariff-free trade on approximately 90 percent of goods under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Poilievre has charged that the decision shows weakness because Carney did not get anything in return for dropping the counter-tariffs.

Canadian confidence in Ottawa getting a good trade deal with Washington has also dipped as negotiations continue well past the Aug. 1 deadline. Forty-six percent of people polled in July were confident that Carney and his team would secure a beneficial deal for Canada, while 45 percent were not confident. Currently, 43 percent possess confidence, while 53 percent do not, the report says.

Meanwhile, 50 percent of survey respondents said the country is on the wrong track compared to 28 percent who said it was on the right path. An additional 22 percent were uncertain.

Party Standings

The federal election in April resulted in the Liberals securing a third consecutive minority government, but a vote held today would be unlikely to offer the same result, the report notes. The 2.4 percent victory in the popular vote from April appears to have diminished, with the Liberals now trailing the Conservatives by two points.

The Liberals are most popular with women aged 55 and older while the Conservatives are most favoured by male voters aged 35 to 54.

The Conservatives were not the only party to see their fortunes improve. The same can also be said for the NDP. Ten percent of respondents say they would be willing to vote for the party as it searches for a new leader. This 4-point rise from the election result of 6 percent appears to be motivated by 9 percent of Liberal voters indicating they would now back the NDP.

The Tories and Liberals are deadlocked in B.C. and Ontario, but the Liberals have an edge in Quebec and Atlantic Canada while the Prairies continue to offer the Conservatives a solid lead.

The online survey was conducted from Aug. 29 through Sept. 4 by 3,656 Canadian adults.