Report Predicts Where Ottawa’s Promised Spending Cuts Could Come From

Prime Minister Mark Carney rises during question period on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Oct. 22, 2025. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

One way Prime Minister Mark Carney might deliver on his promised spending cuts is by allowing hundreds of programs to expire over the next three years, a new report predicts ahead of the release of the Nov. 4 federal budget.

The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) released a report on Oct. 28 predicting the prime minister could follow through on his pledge to make cuts to government spending by allowing programs to “sunset,” or expire, by not renewing their funding.

The CCPA looked at programs in departments with decreasing expenditures over the next three years, as set out in the 2025–26 Departmental Plans published earlier this year. Programs with decreasing expenditures are usually renewed from budget to budget. However, if a department chooses not to renew a program’s funding, the program will expire.

The report indicated the top five departments most likely to cut costs through expiring program funding over the next three years, based on their decreasing expenditures. These include the Department for Women and Gender Equality, Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Transport Canada.

The report outlines 120 “sunsetting” government programs that could lead to 32 out of 84 departments facing cuts that meet or exceed the mandated 15 percent savings target by 2028, solely by allowing programs to expire. The report indicates that another 20 departments could cut more than 5 percent by letting programs expire.

During a televised address on Oct. 22 related to the upcoming federal budget, Carney said “sacrifices” would be required to transform Canada’s economy, but didn’t say what those sacrifices might include. He noted the government would “cut waste and drive efficiencies,” and would have to make “difficult choices.”

Speaking to reporters on Oct. 29, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the “sacrifices” will include making the government more efficient, adopting technology, and ensuring the public service is at a “sustainable level.” He has previously said Canada’s public service would need to go through “adjustments” as Ottawa looks to reduce its spending.

The Liberal government has vowed to “spend less” and “invest more” by creating “efficiencies within programs and across government,” while increasing spending on defence, infrastructure, and housing. Federal ministers have said the budget will carry both a “substantial” deficit and “generational investments.”

Budget Support

The CCPA report comes ahead of Carney’s first budget, for which opposition parties have yet to confirm their support. Whether Carney’s government secures the support of another party on its budget will decide if the Liberals remain in power or another election is called, as the Liberals are currently three seats short of a majority government.

Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon told CBC’s Rosemary Barton during an Oct. 26 interview that the government currently lacks the votes it needs to pass the budget. He’s urging opposition parties to support the spending plan to avoid a Christmas election.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has declined to say whether he will support the budget before its tabled, but has called on Carney to “keep his promise and reverse the massive spending increases that he has brought in.”

He has requested that Carney keep the federal deficit below $42 billion, which aligns closely with the target set by the government in the previous fiscal update, but far exceeds the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s projection last month of $68.5 billion.

Earlier this month, the Bloc Québécois issued 18 budget demands, six of which the party listed as “unavoidable,” saying the party wouldn’t support the budget unless those demands are met.

Meanwhile, interim NDP Leader Don Davies hasn’t ruled out supporting the budget, but has said his party won’t support an “austerity” budget. He has expressed support for federal investments to support workers, businesses, communities, and infrastructure impacted by U.S. tariffs.

Speaking to reporters on Oct. 29, MacKinnon accused Poilievre of being “determined to try and cause a Christmas election.” Several Liberal MPs told reporters that Canadians do not want another election only six months into Carney’s term.

Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer told reporters on Oct. 29 that “it’s becoming pretty clear that the government is going to use their costly budget as an excuse for costly elections.”

Jennifer Cowan, Noé Chartier, Omid Ghoreishi, and Paul Rowan Brian contributed to this report.