Putin’s Predictions About Ukrainian People Were Wrong: Univ. of Illinois Professor

Professor at University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Cynthia Buckley interview on NTD News Today, March 12, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expectations about how Ukraine would respond to an invasion were upended, and instead Ukrainians have never been more united, according to a professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

“At this point in time, the ‘rally-around-the-flag’ effect, the idea of coming together, and the idea of social unity in Ukraine has really never been stronger, and this is the exact opposite of what Putin predicted,” sociology professor Cynthia Buckley said in a March 12 interview with Kevin Hogan of NTD News.

“He was predicting chaos and that people would scatter,“ she said. ”This is not occurring.”

Buckley stressed the key role Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is playing to rally his people to fight the Russian forces.

“You’ve seen the emergence of an enormously charismatic leader in Zelensky,“ she said. ”Him staying and working with the troops and being in Kyiv, for now, has been tremendous in terms of solidifying unity, establishing an idea of patriotism, and really bringing Ukrainians together.”

But the professor warned that this solidarity could wane when human suffering increases as Putin escalates the war.

“We are at a precipice right now in terms of social services in, particularly, central and eastern Ukraine,“ Buckley said. ”And that, as that develops ... may start to diminish the idea of social solidarity and patriotism as we see more big cities go without water, without health care, without basic social services.”

In her assessment of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Buckley said Lavrov is not ready to deescalate his country’s military action.

“I don’t see on the Russian side any sort of motivation for a ceasefire anytime soon,” she said. “Lavrov’s behavior in [the] face of clear human war crimes has been quite surprising, even for Sergei Lavrov, and so a ceasefire, unfortunately, is not on the table at present.”

The fourth round of negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian delegations on a possible ceasefire was paused temporarily on March 14 and expected to resume the next day, an adviser to the Kyiv government said.

Buckley said she thinks it will be difficult to hold Putin and his administration accountable for war crimes, especially if they capture Kyiv.

Hundreds of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, as well as civilians, have died since Russia invaded the country in the early morning hours of Feb. 24. The move prompted widespread international condemnation, and a number of Western countries have hit Russia’s economy with significant sanctions, with more likely on the way.

Since the start of the conflict, over 2.8 million people have fled Ukraine into neighboring countries including Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Russia, and others, according to the International Organization for Migration at the United Nations.

Jack Phillips contributed to this report.